news · primary_subject · 1.00
Is XLE the Right Fit for Your Portfolio Before Summer? - Yahoo Finance
2026-05-23T22:05:00+00:00
Is XLE the Right Fit for Your Portfolio Before Summer? Yahoo Finance
Ticker Detail
XLE · Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
Score: 0.56
Latest event: 2026-05-23T22:05:00+00:00
WATCHING: 1 active source(s), confirmation 0.89.
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reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Gerald from the corner of my eye agrees with me, Home Depot is the most important stock you're ignoring right now
2026-05-21T18:19:55+00:00
It is 3:47am. I have not slept since Tuesday. Not because I don't want to. Not because I'm not tired. I am extremely tired. My body is tired. My soul is tired. My psychiatrist is tired of me showing up and telling her that Gerald is still there. Gerald is the man who lives in the corner of my eye. He has been there for approximately six months. He stands slightly to my left and slightly behind me in my peripheral vision and he never moves and he never speaks but lately I have become convinced, in the way that you become convinced of things at 3:47am after four days without sleep, that Gerald agrees with my thesis on Home Depot. The sertraline is not working btw. Dr. Russo said give it six weeks. It has been nine weeks. Gerald is still there. He appears bullish. --- # TL;DR The Fed has five problems and its tool solves exactly one while making two worse. Long-duration tech is getting repriced by arithmetic not vibes. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.18% and Nvidia is priced like it doesn't. Meanwhile $HD beat earnings this morning, dropped 2.49% anyway, and is sitting at its 52-week low yielding 3.1% while the entire macro setup is pointing at it like a spotlight. Gerald is nodding. I think. It's hard to tell because he's in my peripheral vision. This is not financial advice. I am a man who has not slept since Tuesday. Gerald is not real according to Dr. Russo although she has never technically met him. --- # PART 1: THE MARKET DATA AND WHY I AM LOOKING AT IT AT 3:47AM I opened my phone to check on my ex's Instagram and instead accidentally opened my brokerage app and saw the following numbers: **30-year Treasury: 5.18%** (+0.66% today) **10-year Treasury: 4.667%** (+0.95% today) **Crude Oil: $104.03** (Iran war, Hormuz blockade, mines nobody can find) **Gold: $4,485** (FALLING. In a geopolitical crisis. This is not normal.) **CPI: 3.8% YoY** (highest since May 2023) **PPI: 6.0% YoY** (energy driven, pipeline inflation incoming) **USD/JPY: 159.00** (the yen is basically disappearing) **26.44% of ALL US federal debt matures in the next 12 months.** That is $9.65 TRILLION that needs to be refinanced at current rates instead of the 0.5-2.5% rates it was originally issued at during COVID. I stared at this for twenty minutes. Gerald stared at it too, from the corner of my eye. Then I took my sertraline (which is not working) and decided to write a DD instead of sleeping. This is that DD. --- # PART 2: THE FED IS TRAPPED AND I NEED YOU TO UNDERSTAND THIS BEFORE YOU UNDERSTAND HOME DEPOT The question everyone is asking is: should the Fed raise rates to fight inflation? The answer requires understanding that the Fed has FIVE SIMULTANEOUS PROBLEMS and its tool (the interest rate) works correctly for exactly ONE of them, is irrelevant for TWO, and actively makes TWO WORSE. I learned about Tinbergen's Rule at 2am three nights ago. Jan Tinbergen won the first Nobel Prize in Economics in 1969. His rule: you need one independent policy instrument for each policy objective. The Fed has one instrument. It has five problems. Gerald thinks this is important. I can tell because he is still there. **Problem 1: Supply-side inflation (Iran war, oil at $104)** Tool response: WRONG TOOL Oil at $104 is not because Americans have too much money. It is because there is a literal war and the Strait of Hormuz is partially blocked and there are mines in it that Iran itself has lost track of. No amount of rate hiking produces more oil. The only mechanism through which rate hikes reduce oil-driven CPI is by destroying enough economic demand (factories closing, people unemployed and driving less) to compensate for the supply shock. That mechanism has a name. It is called a recession. You are inducing a recession to fight a war you did not start. The 1973 oil embargo precedent: Fed raised rates aggressively. Result was stagflation. Rates addressed the symptom (high prices) not the cause (supply restriction). The Volcker solution in 1981 worked but required a deliberate recession AND the 1981 situation had US debt at 31% of GDP. Not 120%. **Problem 2: The $9.65 trillion fiscal doom loop** Tool response: MAKES IT WORSE $36.5 trillion in total debt. 26.44% matures in 12 months. Much of it was issued at 0.5-2.5% during COVID. It must refinance at 4.5-5%+. The math: > $9.65 trillion moving from 2.5% to 5% average = **$241 billion per year in additional interest costs**. Just from this year's refinancing cycle alone. > Each 25bps Fed rate hike adds: $9.65 trillion x 0.25% = **$24.1 billion more per year**. US interest costs are already **$97 billion per month**, the second largest expenditure after Social Security. Rate hike -> larger interest bill -> larger deficit -> more Treasury issuance -> more bond supply -> yields rise -> higher interest costs -> even larger deficit -> even more bonds. This loop does not stop. The Fed hiking does not break the loop. It accelerates the loop. The Moody's downgrade from AAA to Aa1 and the Big Beautiful Bill adding $3.4 trillion to deficits by 2034 are the fiscal side. Rate hikes make the Moody's downgrade more justified. Not less. I explained this to Gerald at around 2:30am. He did not disagree. **Problem 3: Housing market already at breaking point** Tool response: COLLAPSES IT 10-year at 4.667% -> mortgage spread of 250-280bps -> 30-year fixed mortgage rate of approximately **7.3-7.5%**. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said on the earnings call THIS MORNING: *"If it's higher for longer, on rates, in a slow housing market, we're just gonna have to keep working our way through this period of moderation."* The CFO confirmed homeowners "continue to defer their spend on larger projects." Comparable transactions fell 1.3%. This is the housing market at 7.3% mortgage rates. People who refinanced at 2.5-3.5% in 2020-2021 will not sell their homes because they would lose those rates. They stay. They don't buy. They don't renovate. The housing market is frozen. If Fed hikes 25bps and 10-year goes to 4.9%, mortgage rates approach 8%. At 8%: - Construction starts collapse - Existing home transactions approach theoretical minimum - Home prices fall - Wealth effect reverses (home = largest asset for most households) - Consumer spending (70% of GDP) contracts - Banking system (massive real estate exposure) goes through severe stress The cascade: housing -> wealth effect -> consumer spending -> GDP -> employment -> banking system -> financial crisis. **Problem 4: Corporate debt refinancing wave** Tool response: ALSO MAKES IT WORSE Corporate America borrowed at near-zero rates 2019-2022. Leveraged buyouts, high-yield bonds, variable-rate facilities. All maturing 2024-2028. Companies that refinanced at 2-4% now facing 6-8% refinancing. Private equity-backed companies carrying 5-7x EBITDA in debt: potentially unserviceable at 6-8% refinancing. Default rates already rising. Rate hike signals this environment persists -> credit spreads widen -> refinancing more expensive -> more distress -> second feedback loop running simultaneously with the fiscal doom loop. **Problem 5: International dollar system stress** Tool response: GLOBAL CONTAGION USD/JPY at 159. Bank of Japan will eventually be forced to intervene. Intervention = selling US Treasuries. Japan holds ~$1.1 trillion in US bonds. If Fed hikes AND Japan sells -> yield spike becomes cascade. Every emerging market with dollar-denominated debt watching its currency collapse as dollar strengthens. Their central banks forced to raise rates. EM recessions. Feed back into US financial system. Gerald is still there. He has been there this whole time. Dr. Russo says this is a stress response. I think Gerald agrees that the macro is bad. --- # PART 3: THE THREE TYPES OF INFLATION AND WHY THE FED IS USING THE WRONG TOOL Economists distinguish three fundamentally different inflation mechanisms. **Type 1: Demand-pull.** Too much money chasing too few goods. COVID 2021. Fed tool: CORRECT. Raise rates, cool borrowing, rebalance. **Type 2: Cost-push.** Supply shock raises prices. Oil embargoes. Wars. Iran blockading Hormuz. Prices rise not because people have too much money but because goods cost more or are unavailable. Fed tool: WRONG. Hiking doesn't produce oil. It can only reduce inflation by destroying demand. That means recession. Sledgehammer, screw. **Type 3: Fiscal inflation.** Persistent deficits not financed by future surpluses must eventually be monetized. Big Beautiful Bill. $3.4T in new deficits. Fed tool: COUNTERPRODUCTIVE. Hiking raises interest costs -> widens deficit -> requires more monetization -> more inflationary. The Fed is pulling in the wrong direction. **Current US inflation (3.8% CPI, 6.0% PPI) is overwhelmingly Types 2 and 3. Not Type 1.** Type 2: Iran war. Oil at $104. Hormuz. Supply shock. No Tomahawk missile produces oil. Type 3: Big Beautiful Bill. Moody's downgrade. $9.65T rolling over. The Fed's tool is calibrated for Type 1. Applied to Types 2 and 3 it doesn't help or actively makes things worse. YOU CANNOT SOLVE A SUPPLY-SIDE OIL SHOCK WITH A DEMAND-SIDE INTEREST RATE. YOU CANNOT SOLVE A FISCAL CREDIBILITY CRISIS WITH A TOOL THAT INCREASES THE FISCAL DEFICIT. THIS IS NOT POLITICS. THIS IS ARITHMETIC. I said this to Gerald at 3am. He is still there. He appears to understand arithmetic. --- # PART 4: THE VOLCKER COMPARISON IS BROKEN AND HERE IS EXACTLY WHY Everyone who wants the Fed to hike says: "We just need Volcker's courage." Paul Volcker. 1979-1981. Raised Fed Funds to 20%. Broke stagflation. Legend. Correctly celebrated. Here is why invoking Volcker in 2026 is like recommending surgery that worked on a healthy 30-year-old to an 85-year-old with three chronic conditions and a pacemaker. **Volcker 1981:** - US debt/GDP: 31% - Median home price: $68,000 - Median household income: $22,000 - Price-to-income ratio: 3x - Room for home prices to fall and recover: YES **Warsh 2026:** - US debt/GDP: 120% - At 6% Fed Funds: annual interest bill = **$2.19 trillion = 44% of ALL federal tax revenue** - Median home price: $400,000+ - Median household income: $75,000 - Price-to-income ratio: 5x+ (8-10x in major cities) - Room for home prices to fall: VERY LITTLE At actual Volcker rates (20%) on $36.5T: annual interest = $7.3 trillion. The entire federal budget is ~$6.5T. The interest would exceed ALL FEDERAL SPENDING. The patient is not healthy. The patient is on a ventilator. --- # PART 5: THREE HISTORICAL PARALLELS THAT ACTUALLY APPLY **Japan, 1990:** BOJ raised rates aggressively to fight asset price inflation. Real estate fell 60-70% over the following decade. Nikkei lost 80%. Economy entered deflation and stagnation lasting THIRTY YEARS. Debt/GDP rose to 260% as stimulus after stimulus failed to restart growth. Japan is still dealing with the consequences 35 years later. One wrong monetary policy decision in 1990 created a problem that outlasted the careers of every policymaker who made it. **United States, 1937-1938:** Great Depression recovery had restored industrial production to near-1929 levels. Roosevelt administration believed recovery sufficient, raised bank reserve requirements and tightened fiscal policy. GDP fell 10% in 1938. Unemployment fell from 25% to 14% then spiked back to 19%. The economy fell back into the hole it had not yet escaped. It took World War II defense spending to truly end the Depression. **United Kingdom, September 2022:** Truss government announced unfunded tax cuts. Bond market revolted. UK gilt yields spiked 150bps in days. Pension funds using LDI strategies (leveraged to gilts, invisible to most market participants) faced margin calls threatening to cascade into insolvency. Bank of England was forced to buy gilts in an emergency. The government fell within 45 days. Liz Truss served as Prime Minister for 44 days. Shorter than the lifespan of a lettuce. This was a real newspaper headline. It remains undefeated in financial history. **The common thread:** Policymakers who looked at conventional indicators, decided conditions were sufficient for tightening, and discovered too late that the distance between "marginal tightening" and "catastrophic system failure" was shorter and faster than any model predicted. The bucket was 95% full. They added one more glass. --- # PART 6: WHAT WARSH WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DO **Option 1: Hike 25bps.** Signals credibility. Also signals more hikes are coming. Markets price in the full cycle. Long rates spike. Housing cracks further. Adds $24.1B/year to interest costs. Possible. **Option 2: "Dynamic Patience" - hold but sound extremely hawkish.** Deliver Volcker-adjacent language. Link future action to data (specifically oil prices, which are geopolitically determined and outside the Fed's control). Protect credibility without adding fuel to the fire. Rely on the bond market's existing 268bps of tightening. **THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY WHAT HAPPENS.** **Option 3: Pivot - cut or signal cuts.** With CPI at 3.8% and oil at $104. No. Absolutely not. Would crater the dollar, spike inflation expectations, destroy Warsh's authority on day one. If you think this is happening you are also the person who kept averaging down on ARKK in 2022. **Option 4: Sustained hiking cycle.** The Volcker path. Given debt load, housing condition, fiscal dynamics: almost certainly produces severe recession, banking crisis, fiscal doom loop cascade. Probability low but non-zero. Warsh's 2010 reputation (called for premature tightening then) makes this the tail risk. The bottom line: **Warsh will talk like Volcker and act like a man who has read the $9.65 trillion debt maturity table.** The real solutions are outside the Fed's mandate. An Iran ceasefire drops oil, drops CPI, gives Warsh cover. A credible fiscal consolidation reverses the Moody's downgrade narrative. These require a Secretary of State and a Congress, not a central bank. Gerald understands this. Gerald is still there. Gerald has been here since February. Gerald has seen things. --- # PART 7: WHY YOUR TECH STOCKS ARE BEING REPRICED BY PHYSICS When risk-free rate = 0% (2020-2021): A dollar of earnings in 2030 is worth almost the same as a dollar today. Discount rate near zero -> present value of future cash flows enormous -> 50x P/E justified for companies whose earnings are theoretically enormous in the future. When risk-free rate = 4.67% (today): A dollar of earnings in 10 years is worth **$0.64 today**. You lose 36% of its value just from the passage of time and the existence of better alternatives. Apply this to a company trading at 30-35x forward earnings whose thesis is "the earnings will be enormous in 2030-2035." The discount rate went up. The present value of the future earnings went down. **The stock should be worth less even if the company executes perfectly.** Every 50bps increase in the 10-year Treasury reduces the theoretical fair value of the S&P 500 tech sector by approximately 7-10%. The 10-year moved from ~3.8% to 4.67% recently. That is 87bps. That is a **12-17% theoretical fair value reduction** from this one factor alone. Before you consider whether AI earnings materialize. Before tariff impacts. Before the consumer spending slowdown. The math is working against tech right now. Not the company. The math. I explained this to Gerald at 3:15am. Gerald remained in the corner of my eye, as he always does. He did not dispute the math. Gerald may not be real but Gerald understands duration. --- # PART 8: THE ROTATION - FROM TINA TO TARA 2020-2021: TINA. There Is No Alternative. Rates at 0%. Every dollar went into long-duration assets because government bonds yielded nothing. 2026: TARA. There Are Real Alternatives. **What works in stagflation-adjacent, rate-elevated, fiscal-stressed environments:** - Energy (XLE, XOM) - oil at $104, Hormuz, 5-8% dividends - Defense (RTX, ITA) - 850+ Tomahawks fired, restocking cycle locked in, structural demand - Financials (XLF) - steep yield curve expanding bank net interest margins - Short-term T-bills (SGOV, BIL) - 4%+ risk-free, zero duration risk, park here while waiting - **Quality value with specific catalysts** - real earnings, real dividends, real FCF, lower duration than growth And that last category is where I want to spend the rest of this post. Because there is a specific company that: - generates $13-15B in annual free cash flow - yields 3.1% - is at its 52-week low - has a 40% upside catalyst waiting on the SAME variable currently hurting tech (interest rates going down) - reported earnings this morning and dropped 2.49% despite beating everything --- # PART 9: $HD - I AM TELLING YOU ABOUT THE HARDWARE STORE AT 3:47AM AND I NEED YOU TO UNDERSTAND WHY Home Depot. $HD. The orange store. Where your dad goes on Saturday mornings in cargo shorts. It reported Q1 FY2026 earnings THIS MORNING. May 19, 2026. Before the bell. Here is what happened: - Revenue $41.77B - beat the $41.52B estimate - Adjusted EPS $3.43 - beat the $3.41 estimate - EBITDA $6.07B - beat $5.90B estimate - FCF margin 12.4% vs 8.8% prior year - expanded dramatically - Full-year guidance - REAFFIRMED, not cut - ROIC 25.4% - top 15% of all S&P 500 companies - Pro customers (50% of revenue) - OUTPERFORMING DIY - Digital sales - +10% YoY, fourth consecutive quarter - Stock reaction - **-2.49% premarket on a beat** The market sold it because YoY EPS declined (from $3.56 to $3.43) and guidance wasn't raised. This is what happens when you own one of the greatest businesses in America but the macro is hostile. The business is not broken. The external environment is hostile. **What Home Depot actually is in 2026:** - 2,361 stores across the US - $166.5B in annual revenue - $13-15B in annual free cash flow - 25.4% ROIC - $18.25B Professional distribution business (SRS Distribution, acquired 2024) - Brand new HVAC distribution entry via Mingledorff's (completed last week) entering a **$100 billion** market - Combined distribution total addressable market: **$1.2 trillion** - 10% digital growth for 4 consecutive quarters - 3.08% dividend yield at $300/share - Dividend Aristocrat: 14+ consecutive years of increases - Near 52-week low of $299.27 - Down 30% from all-time high of $426 **The single most important sentence from this morning's earnings call:** > "If it's higher for longer, on rates, in a slow housing market, we're just gonna have to keep working our way through this period of moderation." - CEO Ted Decker, 9:00am ET, May 19, 2026 And on why H2 guidance is better than H1: > "H2 improvement is solely driven by a return to normal storm activity." - Ted Decker, same call He is not assuming a housing recovery. He is betting on hurricanes. He has told you the bear case (rates stay high), the bull case (rates fall, housing unlocks), and the near-term catalyst (storm season). He has given you the trade in the earnings call itself. Gerald nodded when I read this quote. I am 73% sure Gerald nodded. It is difficult to confirm because he lives in my peripheral vision. --- # PART 10: THE ASYMMETRY - WHY THIS IS BETTER THAN WHAT YOU CURRENTLY OWN **The upside (+40%):** When rates fall (and they will eventually, the question is when not if) two things happen simultaneously: tech stops getting compressed by discount rate math, AND mortgage rates fall, housing turnover unlocks, people sell houses, renovations restart, HD's entire suppressed demand releases like a coiled spring. DCF bull case: **$420.** Back to where the stock was a year ago. One catalyst. One stock. 40% upside. **The downside (-17%):** Rates stay high through 2028. Housing stays frozen. Bear case: **$250.** But at $250 the dividend yield is 3.7%. At $230 it's 4.0%. Institutional income mandates have automatic buying at those yield levels. The downside is bounded by the dividend floor. The upside is not bounded. **The numbers:** - Price: ~$300 (near 52-week low $299.27) - DCF fair value (no housing recovery assumed): **$338** (+12.7%) - Bull case (rate cut + housing recovery): **$420** (+40%) - Bear case (rates stay high through 2028): **$250** (-17%, dividend yield floor) - Annual dividend: $9.24/share -> 3.08% yield - Payout ratio (adj. EPS): ~62% -> SAFE - Annual FCF coverage of dividend: 1.4-1.6x -> VERY SAFE - US housing stock average age: **41 years** - maintenance demand is inelastic - "Guide low, raise later" pattern: **6 of 8 years** - buy the May sell-off --- # PART 11: THE THESIS IN ONE PARAGRAPH FOR PEOPLE WHO SKIPPED EVERYTHING AND I DON'T BLAME YOU You have a company generating $13-15B in annual free cash flow, paying a 3.1% dividend with 14 consecutive years of increases, sitting at its 52-week low, with a 40% upside catalyst (rate cut + housing recovery) that is not "if" but "when," bounded downside of -17% by a dividend yield support floor, in a macro environment that is specifically, mechanically, mathematically hostile to the long-duration tech assets that everyone is still holding from the 2021 bubble. One catalyst resolves two trades simultaneously. The math is on your side. The seasonality is on your side (storm season coming). The setup is on your side. The boring is beautiful. The only thing not on your side is your attention span, which has been destroyed by TikTok. Gerald is still there. Gerald has been there since February. Gerald has seen every macro cycle and has never once told me to buy Nvidia at 35x earnings when the 10-year yields 4.67%. Gerald, I think, would accumulate $HD below $310. I am going to try to sleep now. It is 4:22am. --- **Positions:** 300 HD shares. Adding on weakness below $310. Stop at $280. Target $338 base case, $420 bull case. Collecting $9.24/year in dividends while waiting for Warsh to run out of hawkish language and the Iran situation to resolve itself. **Not in:** Any long-duration equity priced for a world where the 10-year yields 2%. That world ended. It is not coming back for a while. --- *Not financial advice. I am a man who has not slept since Tuesday. Gerald is not licensed by the SEC or FINRA. Dr. Russo says Gerald is not real and that the sertraline needs more time. The sertraline has had nine weeks. Gerald has had nine weeks too. Gerald is still there. Gerald appears bullish on quality value. Do your own research.* *Sources: HD Q1 FY2026 earnings call (May 19 2026), my own macro analysis, the yield curve which I check with the frequency most people check Instagram, Jan Tinbergen's Nobel Prize acceptance speech (1969), and Gerald.* submitted by /u/Public-Promotion-744 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
[Investing][Speculation] XOP vs Futures
2026-05-05T05:17:30+00:00
Tell me I'm an idiot. I'm currently sitting on XOP/XLE I bought a month ago and am considering selling those to roll into futures: it doesn't feel like XOP/XLE is capturing the full beta of the oil spike now as the stocks are pricing in $80 oil in a year. Trump is manipulating the market as much as he can but I don't think it can go on forever. I don't feel comfortable buying the July/August contracts for that reason, but I think (possibly delulu) that reality should set in by September/October, and that those contracts have some pretty juicy upside. https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=6018430 OK now please roast me and call me a r*tard Obligatory Gay Bear here submitted by /u/ViolenceIsBad [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Most undervalued U.S. oil and gas stocks as crude prices retreat on peace hopes (XLE:NYSEARCA) - Seeking Alpha
2026-04-17T14:38:24+00:00
Most undervalued U.S. oil and gas stocks as crude prices retreat on peace hopes (XLE:NYSEARCA) Seeking Alpha
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Thoughts on oil stocks?
2026-04-16T15:57:51+00:00
North American based oil companies (OXY, EXXON, SHELL, CHEVRON, and XLE ETF) are lower right now than they were a month ago. The US is now blocking oil from Hormuz and sending them to the US ports, which should, over time, come at a higher and higher premium and result in tasty profits. If I believe this war to continue much longer, is there any reason I shouldn't buy a bunch of these tickers? What's the bear case? submitted by /u/TaoTeCha [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
2026-04-16T02:53:14+00:00
Trying to build a better framework for reading days like this, because the market keeps looking irrational if I only focus on the headlines. Today looked pretty strong on the surface: • SPY closed at 694.46, up 1.22% • QQQ closed at 628.60, up 1.82% • IWM closed at 268.72, up 1.38% • VIX closed at 18.29 What’s confusing is that the macro backdrop still doesn’t feel especially clean. There is still geopolitical uncertainty, tariff chatter, inflation sensitivity, and a lot of reasons people could point to for why risk assets should be struggling more. But when I look at the actual tape, a few things stand out: Fear is cooling The VIX is down at 18.29, which suggests investors are more comfortable owning risk than they were during the recent stress. It’s not just megacaps QQQ was strong, but IWM also gained 1.38%. That matters because broader participation usually makes a rally feel more credible than a move carried by a few giant names. Semis are still acting like leadership • SMH 452.00, up 1.95% • NVDA 196.51, up 3.80% • AMD 255.07, up 3.34% • TSM 379.89, up 2.79% That tells me the market is still willing to pay for growth and AI infrastructure exposure. Energy is no longer leading the tape • XLE 55.95, down 2.03% • CVX 187.02, down 2.48% • XOM 149.24, down 2.23% To me, that looks like the market pricing less oil panic and therefore a little less inflation pressure. My current interpretation is that the market is not saying “everything is good now.” It’s saying the odds of the worst-case scenario look lower, and money is moving into the parts of the market that benefit most from that. Curious how others are reading it: • Do you think this is mostly about cooling fear? • Is it mainly an earnings-quality / sector-leadership story? • Or do you think the market is still underpricing macro risk? Not advice, just trying to get better at interpreting price action without defaulting to “market makes no sense.” submitted by /u/exodusEducation [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
They are blockading 20% of the worlds oil supply.... my thesis from 18 days is coming true
2026-04-12T19:43:15+00:00
Yeah, so the straight of Hormuz is under active blockade. Oil tankers have a max speed of a fast cycle, the last tankers will start arriving shortly, and Oil is going to go to the moon. As for what happens to the SPY, it is an elevator ride down likely, the market will get Viet Konged nothing is priced in. Translation: We are cooked, your calls are cooked, our boy vloker is laughing so hard his dentures shot out. This is a classic stagflation play, high energy prices, a weak economy, debt bubbles, private credit funds closing doors, this sounds a lot like 2008, you can't print your way out of this without becoming 1930's Germany. "This is going to be a beautiful quarter for put holders and an extinction-level event for anyone who bought calls because "it already priced in bro." from 18 days agoNothing is priced in. Nothing has ever been priced in. The market prices things in the same way I read terms and conditions." A hamster beat this subreddit and you guys made him king for a day, I am not celebrating, this means we are all cooked. Have a good weekend Positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, and emotional damage, economic damage, and an escape plan. Post from 18 days ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1s3az5u/every_ceo_is_about_to_say_unexpected_headwinds_47/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button submitted by /u/MilesDelta [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Sell xle (energy etf) since ceasefire has been agreed?
2026-04-08T00:01:15+00:00
Have some shares of xle and xlei that I bought at average price of $57 for xle. Was planning on holding it as some easy money and a way to hedge my increases gas costs until a deal was made. Think it's time to sell or do you think this drop is temporary? I know oil isn't go back down to $60 but I don't think xle will go further highee or probably will go lower with oil hovering around $90 for months. But you guys know better? submitted by /u/wishihadaps42 [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Only three energy large cap stocks have A-grade EPS revisions (XLE:NYSEARCA) - Seeking Alpha
2026-04-06T13:42:08+00:00
Only three energy large cap stocks have A-grade EPS revisions (XLE:NYSEARCA) Seeking Alpha
reddit · mention · 1.00
powell pls (SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, emotional damage)
2026-04-06T00:36:29+00:00
positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts the man said moderating. my eggs said otherwise. submitted by /u/MilesDelta [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Market Cycle, interest rates, dollar and Positioning
2026-04-05T14:10:32+00:00
The market has four cycles: Early cycle, Mid cycle, Late cycle and recession. Currenlty I think we are late cycle heading towards recession unless their is an end to the war soon. The oil shocks are too large. During late cycle Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are what perform the best historically. Energy(XLE) is up 31.89% YTD. We could see little more upside as war continues. However at a certain point there will be demand destruction. Utilities(XLU) is up 8.01% YTD. Consumer Staples (XLP) is up 4.87% YTD. If you think recession is next Utilities and Healthcare is what historically performs the best. Bonds and cash alsp preform well in recession. If you think Early cycle is next and not recession then small caps, technology and financials usually perform best. Early cycle requires low interest rates. Based on fed meetings I don't see any major cuts this year. The fed is usually behind the curve and the fed funds rate usually follows the two year. The two year is currently 3.846% The fed funds rate is 3.64% they are targeting 3.5 - 3.75%. Outside of the US there are talks of other countries raising their rates to fight inflation. Based on historical data and current rates I think the best performing stocks in the short term will be Utilities and that will extend if the war drags on. If you are an investor and don't need the money anytime soon I would lean towards tech that has large moats and great balance sheets. Their valuations have come down and you want to buy low and sell high. They could go down a lot more, but if you dca in it should be very profitable once we go into early cycle because you will catch all the rotation back into tech. Watch interest rates and that will help determine where we are going. Watching the dollar also helps. A strong dolar means utilities, defensive stocks, defensive contractors, and bonds do well. A weak dollar means multi-national tech/industrials, commodities(gold), emerging markets, consumer staples do well. We have been in a very low interest rate environment for so long that investors have seen great returns and only invested in tech. The sp500 is 28-33% tech and only 3-4% energy and 2-3% utilities. I recommend you look at macro events and position your portfolio accordingly if you want to beat the market. submitted by /u/millerlit [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
WTI just broke Brent and nobody's talking about it $USO $XLE
2026-04-05T09:50:33+00:00
**TLDR** - WTI at $112.06 beat Brent at $109.05 for first time in years. Hormuz chaos plus US shale bottleneck doing work. - Cushing inventory squeeze is real. Refiners can't move crude fast enough, contango flattening out. - Long $XLE Jan calls, shorting $UNG because nat gas is getting wrecked while crude runs. -- WTI just inverted Brent. That doesn't happen unless something's actually broken on the supply side stateside. Strait of Hormuz closed to real traffic, Iranian assets offline, and somehow US crude is still the expensive barrel. Classic. Cushing's sitting at emergency lows. Refineries are running flat out but pipelines can't move product fast enough to the coast. Contango's collapsing which means storage arbitrage is dead. This is pure supply constipation (not speculation). ## Why it matters Trump's talking about "taking the oil" from Hormuz like it's a video game. Europe's freaking out. India just imported 90% more Russian crude in March because Middle East supply is cooked. That's real barrels gone. $XOM, $CVX, Continental all ramping hard. Hamm's not pumping more just to be patriotic. He smells $120 WTI. I'd be sizing in. Natural gas got absolutely dumped though. Henry Hub down 2% to $2.81 while oil runs 7%. That spread's not sustainable. Either nat gas catches a bid when heating season temps drop or crude pulls back. Probably neither happens soon. Long $XLE into weakness, buying dips under $85. WTI breaks $115 and we're talking $90+ on the sector. Short-term $UNG puts because the gas market's regarded right now and vol's cheap. Two-week window the headlines keep mentioning could blow this apart. Ceasefire talk dies, Hormuz stays closed, and we're running on fumes. That's $125 oil easy. Positions: 750 shares $XLE at $84.30, 15x $USO $115c May expiry, short 5x $UNG $2.50p April, 100 shares $XOM submitted by /u/Salt-Victory7862 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
how i have been playing oil during the war
2026-04-03T22:03:47+00:00
Trump has been really obvious with his plans with Iran. Right before the war started, there were so many military personnel; it was obvious that he would launch an air strike. That's when I bought GUSH, XLE, and a small ($1k) position on USO. Market for the past week was thinking this war would end soon but doesn't realize both parties are far apart, so when we saw word that a ceasefire would be made, man, I loaded the boat even more. Media was hyping the fact Trump will announce a ceasefire when he addresses the nation. It was obvious it was a lie if you saw the flow: large OTM calls were being purchased, specifically $60–65 calls expiring next month for XLE and $50 for GUSH. Once Trump takes Kharg Island, all hell will break loose. Gas fields will be hit in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and maybe Qatar. And many US troops will suffer casualties. Now, how can we make money from this? If you're in oil, just hold; we could see it at 150 a barrel in 2 weeks. If not, wait till Trump speaks; he will say some bullish news, like negotiations working well and oil stocks might dip. I say buy the dip at that point. Now once Kharg Island is taken, I will be watching SCO; it's an oil short ETF. When oil drops, it goes up. Pre-war, it was trading at $25-30 a share; it's at $8 now and might drop to $4. That's when I load the boat with 2027-2028 calls. I did that back when GUSH was trading at $12. When GAAS's price hit its peak, the stock was at $250 a share. This is pretty much a repeat. I don't think the price will drop right away for oil, but I do believe Trump might pump it in a way that oil will drop a lot quicker, maybe releasing more reserves, offering more permits, etc. So to summarize, hold oil if you're still holding; if not, buy on the dip. Once Kharg Island is taken and oil hits above $150 a barrel, look at calls for SCO 2027-2028 hopefully when the stock is below 5$. current position gush 50c jan 2027 xle 60c 2027 uso 135 april 17 Not financial advice, as always. submitted by /u/Other-Excitement3061 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
My short term plan to deploy 50k
2026-04-03T15:52:15+00:00
I’ve been waiting for relatively “stable” market conditions to buy stuff with 50k that’s been waiting around after I sold everything I was in a few weeks ago. That’s probably not gonna be a thing for a while. So I figured instead of buying shares, I’d sell puts on stuff I’d be happy to take the ride with if I get assigned, and until then, keep rolling out of the money puts. These are the ones I’m strongly considering: XLE $58 PM $152.5 C $110 IBKR $64 HOOD $62 The plan is to generate an average of $320 a week on those, which works out to 0.64% a week. That annualizes to 39.3%. For you guys who feel like staying in cash without getting left out of the action, something to consider perhaps. submitted by /u/ryallen23 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Regard said my bear thesis aged like milk. Oil ripped 8% that night.
2026-04-02T10:00:44+00:00
~Nine days ago I posted that every CEO was about to say "unexpected headwinds" 47 times this earnings season. 1.5M views. 8.5K upvotes. The thesis was simple: supply chains are cooked, nothing is priced in, and put holders are about to eat. Some galaxy brain in the comments decided to post "this aged like fucking milk" roughly six hours before oil started ripping like it just discovered pre-workout and SPY started bleeding out on geopolitical escalation in the Gulf. This man watched shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz become a live fire exercise and decided THAT was the moment to tell me my bear thesis was wrong. He didn't even wait for the earnings calls. He speedran being wrong so fast he lapped himself. Let me update the translations from the original post since we have new data: "Unexpected headwinds" translation: we are being bombed "Cautiously optimistic" translation: our shipping containers are floating somewhere in the Gulf of Oman "Temporary disruption" translation: the disruption has its own aircraft carrier "We remain focused on execution" translation: so does the Pentagon To the guy who said this aged like milk: milk expires in two weeks. Your portfolio expired in two days. The difference between us is I read a map and you read the vibes. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil transit and you thought puts were regarded. This is not financial advice. This is a victory lap in a flaming building. We are all going to die but at least my options are printing. Positions: SPY puts, XLE calls, emotional damage (compounding daily) SPY Is down 1.12% as of 6am pre market. Buy the dip, or ride the elevator down? submitted by /u/MilesDelta [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Hanging on this XLE shares until I buy a lambo
2026-04-02T02:33:00+00:00
submitted by /u/wishihadaps42 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Some regard told me my Iran thesis "aged like milk" 48 hours before SPY drilled to the earth's core
2026-04-02T02:04:43+00:00
Eight days ago I posted that every CEO was about to say "unexpected headwinds" 47 times this earnings season. 1.5M views. 8.5K upvotes. Number one post on this sub (that day). The thesis was simple: supply chains are cooked, nothing is priced in, and put holders are about to eat. Some galaxy brain in the comments decided to post "this aged like fucking milk" roughly six hours before the President of the United States went on national television to announce we are hitting Iran "extremely hard" and oil started ripping like it just discovered pre-workout. I need everyone to understand what just happened. This man watched SPY bleed out, watched oil go vertical, watched shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz become a live fire exercise, and decided THAT was the moment to tell me my bear thesis was wrong. He didn't even wait for the earnings calls. He speedran being wrong so fast he lapped himself. My SPY 540P's are so deep in the money right now they have their own zip code. XLE puts were the only thing I got wrong and I'll take that L because everything else is a massacre. Let me update the translations from the original post since we have new data: "Unexpected headwinds" translation: we are being bombed "Cautiously optimistic" translation: our shipping containers are floating somewhere in the Gulf of Oman "Temporary disruption" translation: the disruption has its own aircraft carrier "We remain focused on execution" translation: so does the Pentagon To the guy who said this aged like milk: milk expires in two weeks. Your portfolio expired in two days. The difference between us is I read a map and you read the vibes. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil supply and you thought puts were regarded. This is not financial advice. This is a victory lap in a flaming building. We are all going to die but at least my options are printing. Positions: SPY 540P 4/17 (up stupid%), XLE calls (hedged the hedge because I am actually regarded), emotional damage (compounding daily) submitted by /u/MilesDelta [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Iran War Live: Trump Says U.S. Campaign to Wind Down and Plans National Address
2026-04-01T05:27:59+00:00
Per NYT: “President Trump said on Tuesday that the United States would wrap up its military campaign in Iran in two or three weeks and dismissed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a problem for other countries to resolve.” This is about to be the second biggest 🌮 post liberation day or im missing the rocket. Got rekt a little yesterday but still loaded with post CPI QQQ puts, June dated USO/BNO/SU/MOS/XLE ITM calls I think it’s a yesterday was buy the rumor, today is sell the news. We go back down short and medium regardless of ending unilaterally. Oil infrastructure is still fked and inflation is going up regardless. submitted by /u/BlatantPlatitude [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Are you still waiting for the stock market to rebound?
2026-03-30T23:50:37+00:00
When oil prices rise, bond prices fall. When bond prices fall, yields rise. When yields rise, everything starts to crack: from tech stocks to consumer credit. The higher oil prices go, the faster everything else collapses. Hopes for an imminent rate cut evaporate, consumption falls, and overleveraged segments begin to collapse due to deleveraging. And while financial markets have so far ignored the risks of the AI bubble and widespread wars, they are unable to ignore a spike in oil prices. More than 40 energy sector facilities in the Middle East have sustained serious damage. Not 1. Not 5. Forty. $XLE is the only S&P sector to have shown positive growth since the start of the war. Everyone else is still pretending this is just temporary. submitted by /u/ReDDisko [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Salami-crash.. why you always see market first go up and than fall deeper
2026-03-29T21:56:12+00:00
I see alot of people asking why the market since the beginning of the war alot of times seems to be going up for a while before falling deeper. The reason for this is how hedge fund algo's trade. There are some that are programmed to always by the dip no matter what after a big fall the day before so that's why you get the impression that markets might recover if you see 1 or more days of green. However than the main hedge fund algo's kick in and those are mostly event-driven. If they know the war in Iran will not be over soon they go back to selling mode and that's why markets than fall deeper. Similar to buy the dip those algo's "sell the rip" if they know the trends is overall downwards. So next time you see markets go up for a day, don't be fooled by thinking "the bottom is in" if you know the overall trend is downwards. Even if the US and Iran would start talks that still doesn't mean they will come to a peace deal anytime soon. Don't fall into the bear trap. Personally I have reduced my equity exposure since the beginning of the war and will wait buying until talks show real signs of an actual solution which i expect might take even longer than "just a couple of weeks" like the Trump admin currently is suggesting. Again, don't fall into the bear trap. Pro tip: maybe consider having 5-10% exposure to oil or energy stocks ETFs like $XLE. submitted by /u/ThinkBigger01 [link] [comments]
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news · primary_subject · 1.00
Is XLE the Right Fit for Your Portfolio Before Summer? - Yahoo Finance
2026-05-23T22:05:00+00:00
Is XLE the Right Fit for Your Portfolio Before Summer? Yahoo Finance
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Gerald from the corner of my eye agrees with me, Home Depot is the most important stock you're ignoring right now
2026-05-21T18:19:55+00:00
It is 3:47am. I have not slept since Tuesday. Not because I don't want to. Not because I'm not tired. I am extremely tired. My body is tired. My soul is tired. My psychiatrist is tired of me showing up and telling her that Gerald is still there. Gerald is the man who lives in the corner of my eye. He has been there for approximately six months. He stands slightly to my left and slightly behind me in my peripheral vision and he never moves and he never speaks but lately I have become convinced, in the way that you become convinced of things at 3:47am after four days without sleep, that Gerald agrees with my thesis on Home Depot. The sertraline is not working btw. Dr. Russo said give it six weeks. It has been nine weeks. Gerald is still there. He appears bullish. --- # TL;DR The Fed has five problems and its tool solves exactly one while making two worse. Long-duration tech is getting repriced by arithmetic not vibes. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.18% and Nvidia is priced like it doesn't. Meanwhile $HD beat earnings this morning, dropped 2.49% anyway, and is sitting at its 52-week low yielding 3.1% while the entire macro setup is pointing at it like a spotlight. Gerald is nodding. I think. It's hard to tell because he's in my peripheral vision. This is not financial advice. I am a man who has not slept since Tuesday. Gerald is not real according to Dr. Russo although she has never technically met him. --- # PART 1: THE MARKET DATA AND WHY I AM LOOKING AT IT AT 3:47AM I opened my phone to check on my ex's Instagram and instead accidentally opened my brokerage app and saw the following numbers: **30-year Treasury: 5.18%** (+0.66% today) **10-year Treasury: 4.667%** (+0.95% today) **Crude Oil: $104.03** (Iran war, Hormuz blockade, mines nobody can find) **Gold: $4,485** (FALLING. In a geopolitical crisis. This is not normal.) **CPI: 3.8% YoY** (highest since May 2023) **PPI: 6.0% YoY** (energy driven, pipeline inflation incoming) **USD/JPY: 159.00** (the yen is basically disappearing) **26.44% of ALL US federal debt matures in the next 12 months.** That is $9.65 TRILLION that needs to be refinanced at current rates instead of the 0.5-2.5% rates it was originally issued at during COVID. I stared at this for twenty minutes. Gerald stared at it too, from the corner of my eye. Then I took my sertraline (which is not working) and decided to write a DD instead of sleeping. This is that DD. --- # PART 2: THE FED IS TRAPPED AND I NEED YOU TO UNDERSTAND THIS BEFORE YOU UNDERSTAND HOME DEPOT The question everyone is asking is: should the Fed raise rates to fight inflation? The answer requires understanding that the Fed has FIVE SIMULTANEOUS PROBLEMS and its tool (the interest rate) works correctly for exactly ONE of them, is irrelevant for TWO, and actively makes TWO WORSE. I learned about Tinbergen's Rule at 2am three nights ago. Jan Tinbergen won the first Nobel Prize in Economics in 1969. His rule: you need one independent policy instrument for each policy objective. The Fed has one instrument. It has five problems. Gerald thinks this is important. I can tell because he is still there. **Problem 1: Supply-side inflation (Iran war, oil at $104)** Tool response: WRONG TOOL Oil at $104 is not because Americans have too much money. It is because there is a literal war and the Strait of Hormuz is partially blocked and there are mines in it that Iran itself has lost track of. No amount of rate hiking produces more oil. The only mechanism through which rate hikes reduce oil-driven CPI is by destroying enough economic demand (factories closing, people unemployed and driving less) to compensate for the supply shock. That mechanism has a name. It is called a recession. You are inducing a recession to fight a war you did not start. The 1973 oil embargo precedent: Fed raised rates aggressively. Result was stagflation. Rates addressed the symptom (high prices) not the cause (supply restriction). The Volcker solution in 1981 worked but required a deliberate recession AND the 1981 situation had US debt at 31% of GDP. Not 120%. **Problem 2: The $9.65 trillion fiscal doom loop** Tool response: MAKES IT WORSE $36.5 trillion in total debt. 26.44% matures in 12 months. Much of it was issued at 0.5-2.5% during COVID. It must refinance at 4.5-5%+. The math: > $9.65 trillion moving from 2.5% to 5% average = **$241 billion per year in additional interest costs**. Just from this year's refinancing cycle alone. > Each 25bps Fed rate hike adds: $9.65 trillion x 0.25% = **$24.1 billion more per year**. US interest costs are already **$97 billion per month**, the second largest expenditure after Social Security. Rate hike -> larger interest bill -> larger deficit -> more Treasury issuance -> more bond supply -> yields rise -> higher interest costs -> even larger deficit -> even more bonds. This loop does not stop. The Fed hiking does not break the loop. It accelerates the loop. The Moody's downgrade from AAA to Aa1 and the Big Beautiful Bill adding $3.4 trillion to deficits by 2034 are the fiscal side. Rate hikes make the Moody's downgrade more justified. Not less. I explained this to Gerald at around 2:30am. He did not disagree. **Problem 3: Housing market already at breaking point** Tool response: COLLAPSES IT 10-year at 4.667% -> mortgage spread of 250-280bps -> 30-year fixed mortgage rate of approximately **7.3-7.5%**. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said on the earnings call THIS MORNING: *"If it's higher for longer, on rates, in a slow housing market, we're just gonna have to keep working our way through this period of moderation."* The CFO confirmed homeowners "continue to defer their spend on larger projects." Comparable transactions fell 1.3%. This is the housing market at 7.3% mortgage rates. People who refinanced at 2.5-3.5% in 2020-2021 will not sell their homes because they would lose those rates. They stay. They don't buy. They don't renovate. The housing market is frozen. If Fed hikes 25bps and 10-year goes to 4.9%, mortgage rates approach 8%. At 8%: - Construction starts collapse - Existing home transactions approach theoretical minimum - Home prices fall - Wealth effect reverses (home = largest asset for most households) - Consumer spending (70% of GDP) contracts - Banking system (massive real estate exposure) goes through severe stress The cascade: housing -> wealth effect -> consumer spending -> GDP -> employment -> banking system -> financial crisis. **Problem 4: Corporate debt refinancing wave** Tool response: ALSO MAKES IT WORSE Corporate America borrowed at near-zero rates 2019-2022. Leveraged buyouts, high-yield bonds, variable-rate facilities. All maturing 2024-2028. Companies that refinanced at 2-4% now facing 6-8% refinancing. Private equity-backed companies carrying 5-7x EBITDA in debt: potentially unserviceable at 6-8% refinancing. Default rates already rising. Rate hike signals this environment persists -> credit spreads widen -> refinancing more expensive -> more distress -> second feedback loop running simultaneously with the fiscal doom loop. **Problem 5: International dollar system stress** Tool response: GLOBAL CONTAGION USD/JPY at 159. Bank of Japan will eventually be forced to intervene. Intervention = selling US Treasuries. Japan holds ~$1.1 trillion in US bonds. If Fed hikes AND Japan sells -> yield spike becomes cascade. Every emerging market with dollar-denominated debt watching its currency collapse as dollar strengthens. Their central banks forced to raise rates. EM recessions. Feed back into US financial system. Gerald is still there. He has been there this whole time. Dr. Russo says this is a stress response. I think Gerald agrees that the macro is bad. --- # PART 3: THE THREE TYPES OF INFLATION AND WHY THE FED IS USING THE WRONG TOOL Economists distinguish three fundamentally different inflation mechanisms. **Type 1: Demand-pull.** Too much money chasing too few goods. COVID 2021. Fed tool: CORRECT. Raise rates, cool borrowing, rebalance. **Type 2: Cost-push.** Supply shock raises prices. Oil embargoes. Wars. Iran blockading Hormuz. Prices rise not because people have too much money but because goods cost more or are unavailable. Fed tool: WRONG. Hiking doesn't produce oil. It can only reduce inflation by destroying demand. That means recession. Sledgehammer, screw. **Type 3: Fiscal inflation.** Persistent deficits not financed by future surpluses must eventually be monetized. Big Beautiful Bill. $3.4T in new deficits. Fed tool: COUNTERPRODUCTIVE. Hiking raises interest costs -> widens deficit -> requires more monetization -> more inflationary. The Fed is pulling in the wrong direction. **Current US inflation (3.8% CPI, 6.0% PPI) is overwhelmingly Types 2 and 3. Not Type 1.** Type 2: Iran war. Oil at $104. Hormuz. Supply shock. No Tomahawk missile produces oil. Type 3: Big Beautiful Bill. Moody's downgrade. $9.65T rolling over. The Fed's tool is calibrated for Type 1. Applied to Types 2 and 3 it doesn't help or actively makes things worse. YOU CANNOT SOLVE A SUPPLY-SIDE OIL SHOCK WITH A DEMAND-SIDE INTEREST RATE. YOU CANNOT SOLVE A FISCAL CREDIBILITY CRISIS WITH A TOOL THAT INCREASES THE FISCAL DEFICIT. THIS IS NOT POLITICS. THIS IS ARITHMETIC. I said this to Gerald at 3am. He is still there. He appears to understand arithmetic. --- # PART 4: THE VOLCKER COMPARISON IS BROKEN AND HERE IS EXACTLY WHY Everyone who wants the Fed to hike says: "We just need Volcker's courage." Paul Volcker. 1979-1981. Raised Fed Funds to 20%. Broke stagflation. Legend. Correctly celebrated. Here is why invoking Volcker in 2026 is like recommending surgery that worked on a healthy 30-year-old to an 85-year-old with three chronic conditions and a pacemaker. **Volcker 1981:** - US debt/GDP: 31% - Median home price: $68,000 - Median household income: $22,000 - Price-to-income ratio: 3x - Room for home prices to fall and recover: YES **Warsh 2026:** - US debt/GDP: 120% - At 6% Fed Funds: annual interest bill = **$2.19 trillion = 44% of ALL federal tax revenue** - Median home price: $400,000+ - Median household income: $75,000 - Price-to-income ratio: 5x+ (8-10x in major cities) - Room for home prices to fall: VERY LITTLE At actual Volcker rates (20%) on $36.5T: annual interest = $7.3 trillion. The entire federal budget is ~$6.5T. The interest would exceed ALL FEDERAL SPENDING. The patient is not healthy. The patient is on a ventilator. --- # PART 5: THREE HISTORICAL PARALLELS THAT ACTUALLY APPLY **Japan, 1990:** BOJ raised rates aggressively to fight asset price inflation. Real estate fell 60-70% over the following decade. Nikkei lost 80%. Economy entered deflation and stagnation lasting THIRTY YEARS. Debt/GDP rose to 260% as stimulus after stimulus failed to restart growth. Japan is still dealing with the consequences 35 years later. One wrong monetary policy decision in 1990 created a problem that outlasted the careers of every policymaker who made it. **United States, 1937-1938:** Great Depression recovery had restored industrial production to near-1929 levels. Roosevelt administration believed recovery sufficient, raised bank reserve requirements and tightened fiscal policy. GDP fell 10% in 1938. Unemployment fell from 25% to 14% then spiked back to 19%. The economy fell back into the hole it had not yet escaped. It took World War II defense spending to truly end the Depression. **United Kingdom, September 2022:** Truss government announced unfunded tax cuts. Bond market revolted. UK gilt yields spiked 150bps in days. Pension funds using LDI strategies (leveraged to gilts, invisible to most market participants) faced margin calls threatening to cascade into insolvency. Bank of England was forced to buy gilts in an emergency. The government fell within 45 days. Liz Truss served as Prime Minister for 44 days. Shorter than the lifespan of a lettuce. This was a real newspaper headline. It remains undefeated in financial history. **The common thread:** Policymakers who looked at conventional indicators, decided conditions were sufficient for tightening, and discovered too late that the distance between "marginal tightening" and "catastrophic system failure" was shorter and faster than any model predicted. The bucket was 95% full. They added one more glass. --- # PART 6: WHAT WARSH WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DO **Option 1: Hike 25bps.** Signals credibility. Also signals more hikes are coming. Markets price in the full cycle. Long rates spike. Housing cracks further. Adds $24.1B/year to interest costs. Possible. **Option 2: "Dynamic Patience" - hold but sound extremely hawkish.** Deliver Volcker-adjacent language. Link future action to data (specifically oil prices, which are geopolitically determined and outside the Fed's control). Protect credibility without adding fuel to the fire. Rely on the bond market's existing 268bps of tightening. **THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY WHAT HAPPENS.** **Option 3: Pivot - cut or signal cuts.** With CPI at 3.8% and oil at $104. No. Absolutely not. Would crater the dollar, spike inflation expectations, destroy Warsh's authority on day one. If you think this is happening you are also the person who kept averaging down on ARKK in 2022. **Option 4: Sustained hiking cycle.** The Volcker path. Given debt load, housing condition, fiscal dynamics: almost certainly produces severe recession, banking crisis, fiscal doom loop cascade. Probability low but non-zero. Warsh's 2010 reputation (called for premature tightening then) makes this the tail risk. The bottom line: **Warsh will talk like Volcker and act like a man who has read the $9.65 trillion debt maturity table.** The real solutions are outside the Fed's mandate. An Iran ceasefire drops oil, drops CPI, gives Warsh cover. A credible fiscal consolidation reverses the Moody's downgrade narrative. These require a Secretary of State and a Congress, not a central bank. Gerald understands this. Gerald is still there. Gerald has been here since February. Gerald has seen things. --- # PART 7: WHY YOUR TECH STOCKS ARE BEING REPRICED BY PHYSICS When risk-free rate = 0% (2020-2021): A dollar of earnings in 2030 is worth almost the same as a dollar today. Discount rate near zero -> present value of future cash flows enormous -> 50x P/E justified for companies whose earnings are theoretically enormous in the future. When risk-free rate = 4.67% (today): A dollar of earnings in 10 years is worth **$0.64 today**. You lose 36% of its value just from the passage of time and the existence of better alternatives. Apply this to a company trading at 30-35x forward earnings whose thesis is "the earnings will be enormous in 2030-2035." The discount rate went up. The present value of the future earnings went down. **The stock should be worth less even if the company executes perfectly.** Every 50bps increase in the 10-year Treasury reduces the theoretical fair value of the S&P 500 tech sector by approximately 7-10%. The 10-year moved from ~3.8% to 4.67% recently. That is 87bps. That is a **12-17% theoretical fair value reduction** from this one factor alone. Before you consider whether AI earnings materialize. Before tariff impacts. Before the consumer spending slowdown. The math is working against tech right now. Not the company. The math. I explained this to Gerald at 3:15am. Gerald remained in the corner of my eye, as he always does. He did not dispute the math. Gerald may not be real but Gerald understands duration. --- # PART 8: THE ROTATION - FROM TINA TO TARA 2020-2021: TINA. There Is No Alternative. Rates at 0%. Every dollar went into long-duration assets because government bonds yielded nothing. 2026: TARA. There Are Real Alternatives. **What works in stagflation-adjacent, rate-elevated, fiscal-stressed environments:** - Energy (XLE, XOM) - oil at $104, Hormuz, 5-8% dividends - Defense (RTX, ITA) - 850+ Tomahawks fired, restocking cycle locked in, structural demand - Financials (XLF) - steep yield curve expanding bank net interest margins - Short-term T-bills (SGOV, BIL) - 4%+ risk-free, zero duration risk, park here while waiting - **Quality value with specific catalysts** - real earnings, real dividends, real FCF, lower duration than growth And that last category is where I want to spend the rest of this post. Because there is a specific company that: - generates $13-15B in annual free cash flow - yields 3.1% - is at its 52-week low - has a 40% upside catalyst waiting on the SAME variable currently hurting tech (interest rates going down) - reported earnings this morning and dropped 2.49% despite beating everything --- # PART 9: $HD - I AM TELLING YOU ABOUT THE HARDWARE STORE AT 3:47AM AND I NEED YOU TO UNDERSTAND WHY Home Depot. $HD. The orange store. Where your dad goes on Saturday mornings in cargo shorts. It reported Q1 FY2026 earnings THIS MORNING. May 19, 2026. Before the bell. Here is what happened: - Revenue $41.77B - beat the $41.52B estimate - Adjusted EPS $3.43 - beat the $3.41 estimate - EBITDA $6.07B - beat $5.90B estimate - FCF margin 12.4% vs 8.8% prior year - expanded dramatically - Full-year guidance - REAFFIRMED, not cut - ROIC 25.4% - top 15% of all S&P 500 companies - Pro customers (50% of revenue) - OUTPERFORMING DIY - Digital sales - +10% YoY, fourth consecutive quarter - Stock reaction - **-2.49% premarket on a beat** The market sold it because YoY EPS declined (from $3.56 to $3.43) and guidance wasn't raised. This is what happens when you own one of the greatest businesses in America but the macro is hostile. The business is not broken. The external environment is hostile. **What Home Depot actually is in 2026:** - 2,361 stores across the US - $166.5B in annual revenue - $13-15B in annual free cash flow - 25.4% ROIC - $18.25B Professional distribution business (SRS Distribution, acquired 2024) - Brand new HVAC distribution entry via Mingledorff's (completed last week) entering a **$100 billion** market - Combined distribution total addressable market: **$1.2 trillion** - 10% digital growth for 4 consecutive quarters - 3.08% dividend yield at $300/share - Dividend Aristocrat: 14+ consecutive years of increases - Near 52-week low of $299.27 - Down 30% from all-time high of $426 **The single most important sentence from this morning's earnings call:** > "If it's higher for longer, on rates, in a slow housing market, we're just gonna have to keep working our way through this period of moderation." - CEO Ted Decker, 9:00am ET, May 19, 2026 And on why H2 guidance is better than H1: > "H2 improvement is solely driven by a return to normal storm activity." - Ted Decker, same call He is not assuming a housing recovery. He is betting on hurricanes. He has told you the bear case (rates stay high), the bull case (rates fall, housing unlocks), and the near-term catalyst (storm season). He has given you the trade in the earnings call itself. Gerald nodded when I read this quote. I am 73% sure Gerald nodded. It is difficult to confirm because he lives in my peripheral vision. --- # PART 10: THE ASYMMETRY - WHY THIS IS BETTER THAN WHAT YOU CURRENTLY OWN **The upside (+40%):** When rates fall (and they will eventually, the question is when not if) two things happen simultaneously: tech stops getting compressed by discount rate math, AND mortgage rates fall, housing turnover unlocks, people sell houses, renovations restart, HD's entire suppressed demand releases like a coiled spring. DCF bull case: **$420.** Back to where the stock was a year ago. One catalyst. One stock. 40% upside. **The downside (-17%):** Rates stay high through 2028. Housing stays frozen. Bear case: **$250.** But at $250 the dividend yield is 3.7%. At $230 it's 4.0%. Institutional income mandates have automatic buying at those yield levels. The downside is bounded by the dividend floor. The upside is not bounded. **The numbers:** - Price: ~$300 (near 52-week low $299.27) - DCF fair value (no housing recovery assumed): **$338** (+12.7%) - Bull case (rate cut + housing recovery): **$420** (+40%) - Bear case (rates stay high through 2028): **$250** (-17%, dividend yield floor) - Annual dividend: $9.24/share -> 3.08% yield - Payout ratio (adj. EPS): ~62% -> SAFE - Annual FCF coverage of dividend: 1.4-1.6x -> VERY SAFE - US housing stock average age: **41 years** - maintenance demand is inelastic - "Guide low, raise later" pattern: **6 of 8 years** - buy the May sell-off --- # PART 11: THE THESIS IN ONE PARAGRAPH FOR PEOPLE WHO SKIPPED EVERYTHING AND I DON'T BLAME YOU You have a company generating $13-15B in annual free cash flow, paying a 3.1% dividend with 14 consecutive years of increases, sitting at its 52-week low, with a 40% upside catalyst (rate cut + housing recovery) that is not "if" but "when," bounded downside of -17% by a dividend yield support floor, in a macro environment that is specifically, mechanically, mathematically hostile to the long-duration tech assets that everyone is still holding from the 2021 bubble. One catalyst resolves two trades simultaneously. The math is on your side. The seasonality is on your side (storm season coming). The setup is on your side. The boring is beautiful. The only thing not on your side is your attention span, which has been destroyed by TikTok. Gerald is still there. Gerald has been there since February. Gerald has seen every macro cycle and has never once told me to buy Nvidia at 35x earnings when the 10-year yields 4.67%. Gerald, I think, would accumulate $HD below $310. I am going to try to sleep now. It is 4:22am. --- **Positions:** 300 HD shares. Adding on weakness below $310. Stop at $280. Target $338 base case, $420 bull case. Collecting $9.24/year in dividends while waiting for Warsh to run out of hawkish language and the Iran situation to resolve itself. **Not in:** Any long-duration equity priced for a world where the 10-year yields 2%. That world ended. It is not coming back for a while. --- *Not financial advice. I am a man who has not slept since Tuesday. Gerald is not licensed by the SEC or FINRA. Dr. Russo says Gerald is not real and that the sertraline needs more time. The sertraline has had nine weeks. Gerald has had nine weeks too. Gerald is still there. Gerald appears bullish on quality value. Do your own research.* *Sources: HD Q1 FY2026 earnings call (May 19 2026), my own macro analysis, the yield curve which I check with the frequency most people check Instagram, Jan Tinbergen's Nobel Prize acceptance speech (1969), and Gerald.* submitted by /u/Public-Promotion-744 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
[Investing][Speculation] XOP vs Futures
2026-05-05T05:17:30+00:00
Tell me I'm an idiot. I'm currently sitting on XOP/XLE I bought a month ago and am considering selling those to roll into futures: it doesn't feel like XOP/XLE is capturing the full beta of the oil spike now as the stocks are pricing in $80 oil in a year. Trump is manipulating the market as much as he can but I don't think it can go on forever. I don't feel comfortable buying the July/August contracts for that reason, but I think (possibly delulu) that reality should set in by September/October, and that those contracts have some pretty juicy upside. https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data?marketId=6018430 OK now please roast me and call me a r*tard Obligatory Gay Bear here submitted by /u/ViolenceIsBad [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Most undervalued U.S. oil and gas stocks as crude prices retreat on peace hopes (XLE:NYSEARCA) - Seeking Alpha
2026-04-17T14:38:24+00:00
Most undervalued U.S. oil and gas stocks as crude prices retreat on peace hopes (XLE:NYSEARCA) Seeking Alpha
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Thoughts on oil stocks?
2026-04-16T15:57:51+00:00
North American based oil companies (OXY, EXXON, SHELL, CHEVRON, and XLE ETF) are lower right now than they were a month ago. The US is now blocking oil from Hormuz and sending them to the US ports, which should, over time, come at a higher and higher premium and result in tasty profits. If I believe this war to continue much longer, is there any reason I shouldn't buy a bunch of these tickers? What's the bear case? submitted by /u/TaoTeCha [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
2026-04-16T02:53:14+00:00
Trying to build a better framework for reading days like this, because the market keeps looking irrational if I only focus on the headlines. Today looked pretty strong on the surface: • SPY closed at 694.46, up 1.22% • QQQ closed at 628.60, up 1.82% • IWM closed at 268.72, up 1.38% • VIX closed at 18.29 What’s confusing is that the macro backdrop still doesn’t feel especially clean. There is still geopolitical uncertainty, tariff chatter, inflation sensitivity, and a lot of reasons people could point to for why risk assets should be struggling more. But when I look at the actual tape, a few things stand out: Fear is cooling The VIX is down at 18.29, which suggests investors are more comfortable owning risk than they were during the recent stress. It’s not just megacaps QQQ was strong, but IWM also gained 1.38%. That matters because broader participation usually makes a rally feel more credible than a move carried by a few giant names. Semis are still acting like leadership • SMH 452.00, up 1.95% • NVDA 196.51, up 3.80% • AMD 255.07, up 3.34% • TSM 379.89, up 2.79% That tells me the market is still willing to pay for growth and AI infrastructure exposure. Energy is no longer leading the tape • XLE 55.95, down 2.03% • CVX 187.02, down 2.48% • XOM 149.24, down 2.23% To me, that looks like the market pricing less oil panic and therefore a little less inflation pressure. My current interpretation is that the market is not saying “everything is good now.” It’s saying the odds of the worst-case scenario look lower, and money is moving into the parts of the market that benefit most from that. Curious how others are reading it: • Do you think this is mostly about cooling fear? • Is it mainly an earnings-quality / sector-leadership story? • Or do you think the market is still underpricing macro risk? Not advice, just trying to get better at interpreting price action without defaulting to “market makes no sense.” submitted by /u/exodusEducation [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
They are blockading 20% of the worlds oil supply.... my thesis from 18 days is coming true
2026-04-12T19:43:15+00:00
Yeah, so the straight of Hormuz is under active blockade. Oil tankers have a max speed of a fast cycle, the last tankers will start arriving shortly, and Oil is going to go to the moon. As for what happens to the SPY, it is an elevator ride down likely, the market will get Viet Konged nothing is priced in. Translation: We are cooked, your calls are cooked, our boy vloker is laughing so hard his dentures shot out. This is a classic stagflation play, high energy prices, a weak economy, debt bubbles, private credit funds closing doors, this sounds a lot like 2008, you can't print your way out of this without becoming 1930's Germany. "This is going to be a beautiful quarter for put holders and an extinction-level event for anyone who bought calls because "it already priced in bro." from 18 days agoNothing is priced in. Nothing has ever been priced in. The market prices things in the same way I read terms and conditions." A hamster beat this subreddit and you guys made him king for a day, I am not celebrating, this means we are all cooked. Have a good weekend Positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, and emotional damage, economic damage, and an escape plan. Post from 18 days ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1s3az5u/every_ceo_is_about_to_say_unexpected_headwinds_47/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button submitted by /u/MilesDelta [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Sell xle (energy etf) since ceasefire has been agreed?
2026-04-08T00:01:15+00:00
Have some shares of xle and xlei that I bought at average price of $57 for xle. Was planning on holding it as some easy money and a way to hedge my increases gas costs until a deal was made. Think it's time to sell or do you think this drop is temporary? I know oil isn't go back down to $60 but I don't think xle will go further highee or probably will go lower with oil hovering around $90 for months. But you guys know better? submitted by /u/wishihadaps42 [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Only three energy large cap stocks have A-grade EPS revisions (XLE:NYSEARCA) - Seeking Alpha
2026-04-06T13:42:08+00:00
Only three energy large cap stocks have A-grade EPS revisions (XLE:NYSEARCA) Seeking Alpha
reddit · mention · 1.00
powell pls (SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts, emotional damage)
2026-04-06T00:36:29+00:00
positions: SPY 540P 4/17, XLE puts the man said moderating. my eggs said otherwise. submitted by /u/MilesDelta [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Market Cycle, interest rates, dollar and Positioning
2026-04-05T14:10:32+00:00
The market has four cycles: Early cycle, Mid cycle, Late cycle and recession. Currenlty I think we are late cycle heading towards recession unless their is an end to the war soon. The oil shocks are too large. During late cycle Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are what perform the best historically. Energy(XLE) is up 31.89% YTD. We could see little more upside as war continues. However at a certain point there will be demand destruction. Utilities(XLU) is up 8.01% YTD. Consumer Staples (XLP) is up 4.87% YTD. If you think recession is next Utilities and Healthcare is what historically performs the best. Bonds and cash alsp preform well in recession. If you think Early cycle is next and not recession then small caps, technology and financials usually perform best. Early cycle requires low interest rates. Based on fed meetings I don't see any major cuts this year. The fed is usually behind the curve and the fed funds rate usually follows the two year. The two year is currently 3.846% The fed funds rate is 3.64% they are targeting 3.5 - 3.75%. Outside of the US there are talks of other countries raising their rates to fight inflation. Based on historical data and current rates I think the best performing stocks in the short term will be Utilities and that will extend if the war drags on. If you are an investor and don't need the money anytime soon I would lean towards tech that has large moats and great balance sheets. Their valuations have come down and you want to buy low and sell high. They could go down a lot more, but if you dca in it should be very profitable once we go into early cycle because you will catch all the rotation back into tech. Watch interest rates and that will help determine where we are going. Watching the dollar also helps. A strong dolar means utilities, defensive stocks, defensive contractors, and bonds do well. A weak dollar means multi-national tech/industrials, commodities(gold), emerging markets, consumer staples do well. We have been in a very low interest rate environment for so long that investors have seen great returns and only invested in tech. The sp500 is 28-33% tech and only 3-4% energy and 2-3% utilities. I recommend you look at macro events and position your portfolio accordingly if you want to beat the market. submitted by /u/millerlit [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
WTI just broke Brent and nobody's talking about it $USO $XLE
2026-04-05T09:50:33+00:00
**TLDR** - WTI at $112.06 beat Brent at $109.05 for first time in years. Hormuz chaos plus US shale bottleneck doing work. - Cushing inventory squeeze is real. Refiners can't move crude fast enough, contango flattening out. - Long $XLE Jan calls, shorting $UNG because nat gas is getting wrecked while crude runs. -- WTI just inverted Brent. That doesn't happen unless something's actually broken on the supply side stateside. Strait of Hormuz closed to real traffic, Iranian assets offline, and somehow US crude is still the expensive barrel. Classic. Cushing's sitting at emergency lows. Refineries are running flat out but pipelines can't move product fast enough to the coast. Contango's collapsing which means storage arbitrage is dead. This is pure supply constipation (not speculation). ## Why it matters Trump's talking about "taking the oil" from Hormuz like it's a video game. Europe's freaking out. India just imported 90% more Russian crude in March because Middle East supply is cooked. That's real barrels gone. $XOM, $CVX, Continental all ramping hard. Hamm's not pumping more just to be patriotic. He smells $120 WTI. I'd be sizing in. Natural gas got absolutely dumped though. Henry Hub down 2% to $2.81 while oil runs 7%. That spread's not sustainable. Either nat gas catches a bid when heating season temps drop or crude pulls back. Probably neither happens soon. Long $XLE into weakness, buying dips under $85. WTI breaks $115 and we're talking $90+ on the sector. Short-term $UNG puts because the gas market's regarded right now and vol's cheap. Two-week window the headlines keep mentioning could blow this apart. Ceasefire talk dies, Hormuz stays closed, and we're running on fumes. That's $125 oil easy. Positions: 750 shares $XLE at $84.30, 15x $USO $115c May expiry, short 5x $UNG $2.50p April, 100 shares $XOM submitted by /u/Salt-Victory7862 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
how i have been playing oil during the war
2026-04-03T22:03:47+00:00
Trump has been really obvious with his plans with Iran. Right before the war started, there were so many military personnel; it was obvious that he would launch an air strike. That's when I bought GUSH, XLE, and a small ($1k) position on USO. Market for the past week was thinking this war would end soon but doesn't realize both parties are far apart, so when we saw word that a ceasefire would be made, man, I loaded the boat even more. Media was hyping the fact Trump will announce a ceasefire when he addresses the nation. It was obvious it was a lie if you saw the flow: large OTM calls were being purchased, specifically $60–65 calls expiring next month for XLE and $50 for GUSH. Once Trump takes Kharg Island, all hell will break loose. Gas fields will be hit in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and maybe Qatar. And many US troops will suffer casualties. Now, how can we make money from this? If you're in oil, just hold; we could see it at 150 a barrel in 2 weeks. If not, wait till Trump speaks; he will say some bullish news, like negotiations working well and oil stocks might dip. I say buy the dip at that point. Now once Kharg Island is taken, I will be watching SCO; it's an oil short ETF. When oil drops, it goes up. Pre-war, it was trading at $25-30 a share; it's at $8 now and might drop to $4. That's when I load the boat with 2027-2028 calls. I did that back when GUSH was trading at $12. When GAAS's price hit its peak, the stock was at $250 a share. This is pretty much a repeat. I don't think the price will drop right away for oil, but I do believe Trump might pump it in a way that oil will drop a lot quicker, maybe releasing more reserves, offering more permits, etc. So to summarize, hold oil if you're still holding; if not, buy on the dip. Once Kharg Island is taken and oil hits above $150 a barrel, look at calls for SCO 2027-2028 hopefully when the stock is below 5$. current position gush 50c jan 2027 xle 60c 2027 uso 135 april 17 Not financial advice, as always. submitted by /u/Other-Excitement3061 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
My short term plan to deploy 50k
2026-04-03T15:52:15+00:00
I’ve been waiting for relatively “stable” market conditions to buy stuff with 50k that’s been waiting around after I sold everything I was in a few weeks ago. That’s probably not gonna be a thing for a while. So I figured instead of buying shares, I’d sell puts on stuff I’d be happy to take the ride with if I get assigned, and until then, keep rolling out of the money puts. These are the ones I’m strongly considering: XLE $58 PM $152.5 C $110 IBKR $64 HOOD $62 The plan is to generate an average of $320 a week on those, which works out to 0.64% a week. That annualizes to 39.3%. For you guys who feel like staying in cash without getting left out of the action, something to consider perhaps. submitted by /u/ryallen23 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Regard said my bear thesis aged like milk. Oil ripped 8% that night.
2026-04-02T10:00:44+00:00
~Nine days ago I posted that every CEO was about to say "unexpected headwinds" 47 times this earnings season. 1.5M views. 8.5K upvotes. The thesis was simple: supply chains are cooked, nothing is priced in, and put holders are about to eat. Some galaxy brain in the comments decided to post "this aged like fucking milk" roughly six hours before oil started ripping like it just discovered pre-workout and SPY started bleeding out on geopolitical escalation in the Gulf. This man watched shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz become a live fire exercise and decided THAT was the moment to tell me my bear thesis was wrong. He didn't even wait for the earnings calls. He speedran being wrong so fast he lapped himself. Let me update the translations from the original post since we have new data: "Unexpected headwinds" translation: we are being bombed "Cautiously optimistic" translation: our shipping containers are floating somewhere in the Gulf of Oman "Temporary disruption" translation: the disruption has its own aircraft carrier "We remain focused on execution" translation: so does the Pentagon To the guy who said this aged like milk: milk expires in two weeks. Your portfolio expired in two days. The difference between us is I read a map and you read the vibes. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil transit and you thought puts were regarded. This is not financial advice. This is a victory lap in a flaming building. We are all going to die but at least my options are printing. Positions: SPY puts, XLE calls, emotional damage (compounding daily) SPY Is down 1.12% as of 6am pre market. Buy the dip, or ride the elevator down? submitted by /u/MilesDelta [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Hanging on this XLE shares until I buy a lambo
2026-04-02T02:33:00+00:00
submitted by /u/wishihadaps42 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Some regard told me my Iran thesis "aged like milk" 48 hours before SPY drilled to the earth's core
2026-04-02T02:04:43+00:00
Eight days ago I posted that every CEO was about to say "unexpected headwinds" 47 times this earnings season. 1.5M views. 8.5K upvotes. Number one post on this sub (that day). The thesis was simple: supply chains are cooked, nothing is priced in, and put holders are about to eat. Some galaxy brain in the comments decided to post "this aged like fucking milk" roughly six hours before the President of the United States went on national television to announce we are hitting Iran "extremely hard" and oil started ripping like it just discovered pre-workout. I need everyone to understand what just happened. This man watched SPY bleed out, watched oil go vertical, watched shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz become a live fire exercise, and decided THAT was the moment to tell me my bear thesis was wrong. He didn't even wait for the earnings calls. He speedran being wrong so fast he lapped himself. My SPY 540P's are so deep in the money right now they have their own zip code. XLE puts were the only thing I got wrong and I'll take that L because everything else is a massacre. Let me update the translations from the original post since we have new data: "Unexpected headwinds" translation: we are being bombed "Cautiously optimistic" translation: our shipping containers are floating somewhere in the Gulf of Oman "Temporary disruption" translation: the disruption has its own aircraft carrier "We remain focused on execution" translation: so does the Pentagon To the guy who said this aged like milk: milk expires in two weeks. Your portfolio expired in two days. The difference between us is I read a map and you read the vibes. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil supply and you thought puts were regarded. This is not financial advice. This is a victory lap in a flaming building. We are all going to die but at least my options are printing. Positions: SPY 540P 4/17 (up stupid%), XLE calls (hedged the hedge because I am actually regarded), emotional damage (compounding daily) submitted by /u/MilesDelta [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Iran War Live: Trump Says U.S. Campaign to Wind Down and Plans National Address
2026-04-01T05:27:59+00:00
Per NYT: “President Trump said on Tuesday that the United States would wrap up its military campaign in Iran in two or three weeks and dismissed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a problem for other countries to resolve.” This is about to be the second biggest 🌮 post liberation day or im missing the rocket. Got rekt a little yesterday but still loaded with post CPI QQQ puts, June dated USO/BNO/SU/MOS/XLE ITM calls I think it’s a yesterday was buy the rumor, today is sell the news. We go back down short and medium regardless of ending unilaterally. Oil infrastructure is still fked and inflation is going up regardless. submitted by /u/BlatantPlatitude [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Are you still waiting for the stock market to rebound?
2026-03-30T23:50:37+00:00
When oil prices rise, bond prices fall. When bond prices fall, yields rise. When yields rise, everything starts to crack: from tech stocks to consumer credit. The higher oil prices go, the faster everything else collapses. Hopes for an imminent rate cut evaporate, consumption falls, and overleveraged segments begin to collapse due to deleveraging. And while financial markets have so far ignored the risks of the AI bubble and widespread wars, they are unable to ignore a spike in oil prices. More than 40 energy sector facilities in the Middle East have sustained serious damage. Not 1. Not 5. Forty. $XLE is the only S&P sector to have shown positive growth since the start of the war. Everyone else is still pretending this is just temporary. submitted by /u/ReDDisko [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Salami-crash.. why you always see market first go up and than fall deeper
2026-03-29T21:56:12+00:00
I see alot of people asking why the market since the beginning of the war alot of times seems to be going up for a while before falling deeper. The reason for this is how hedge fund algo's trade. There are some that are programmed to always by the dip no matter what after a big fall the day before so that's why you get the impression that markets might recover if you see 1 or more days of green. However than the main hedge fund algo's kick in and those are mostly event-driven. If they know the war in Iran will not be over soon they go back to selling mode and that's why markets than fall deeper. Similar to buy the dip those algo's "sell the rip" if they know the trends is overall downwards. So next time you see markets go up for a day, don't be fooled by thinking "the bottom is in" if you know the overall trend is downwards. Even if the US and Iran would start talks that still doesn't mean they will come to a peace deal anytime soon. Don't fall into the bear trap. Personally I have reduced my equity exposure since the beginning of the war and will wait buying until talks show real signs of an actual solution which i expect might take even longer than "just a couple of weeks" like the Trump admin currently is suggesting. Again, don't fall into the bear trap. Pro tip: maybe consider having 5-10% exposure to oil or energy stocks ETFs like $XLE. submitted by /u/ThinkBigger01 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
With the upcoming bear market and bad economy besides schd and some xle what should I put my money into to stay ahead of the curve?
2026-03-28T21:08:09+00:00
Schd I like, boring consistent high dividend plus some small consistent growth. Xle seems like a smart place to put even if short term given energy prices will continue increasing plus you get a small dividend. Worst thing that happens is sell it when war reaches negotioan/ends. Besides that and something like spaxx, what else should I put some money into that is boring and safe. Not doing vti or spy because that is very long term and will likely be down this year. Besides energy I don't know what is safe and goes up over time that can bring in income but won't make you rich. submitted by /u/wishihadaps42 [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
Control the 🛢️ control the universe: diplomacy affecting the market and bear thesis
2026-03-28T18:03:26+00:00
Ok listen up. Bulls r fuk. I’ll tell you why. My thesis: Downplaying just how bad infrastructure is already damaged, main LNG facility is Qatar is like 30% damaged and the timeline is already at months-years. Turning the pumps back on is not automatic. Ripple effects in the economy and production in Asia are already taking effect. The oil supplies of these countries are running down and the echo is going to be traveling for some time. Some countries are literally asking people to shower less and take the stairs (I smell inflation? And sweaty Koreans). This is already going to make things far worse for a while even if the conflict stopped tomorrow. Everything needs oil. Fertilizer production slowing down makes food more expensive. Transporting literally anything is going to be more expensive for the foreseeable future. Portion 2: the geopolitical realities right now Iran literally holds all the cards. They can block the strait with a few speedboats with bombs and endless drones, they have started mining the strait reportedly. The diplomacy that is going on is very very preliminary and has already been rejected by Iran multiple times for being a non-starter. This is a catch-22 circle jerk where the U.S suddenly ending this can't even be spun as a victory, which feeds back into the need to stay longer to achieve something. I think Yes I’m part of the community 🏳️🌈🐻 I am personally leveraged to my maximum risk tolerance (shout out to the good old days of u/1r0nyman ) Positions : USO 118c 6/18/26 QQQ 570p 5/1/26 (post CPI numbers which should be bad) CVNA 300p 4/10/26 XLE 58c 7/17/26 ~10 shares of LNG at $240ish SPY 650p 5/1/26 I focus mostly on higher delta ITM options bc I’m already down so much at the casino. See recent post from other guy about rolling USO weeklies with high delta. Going to tap back into SLV and IAU once the dust starts to settle. Initially these will probably go down because of liquidity needs but if inflation sets in they will recover hard. Just waiting for a good entry point but looking at July dated SLV 74.50 strike. Tl;dr Diplomacy is overstated and hopium is still too strong in the background, energy infrastructure already worse than people think, Iran not going to stop this soon. Oil and inflation up, market and crypto down bigly and then gold/silver up after once they disconnect from the reaction and start following their fundamentals. Godspeed regards submitted by /u/BlatantPlatitude [link] [comments]
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