reddit · comparison · 0.85
The positions I'm adding as a regarded broke 21 yo this summer
2026-05-24T18:23:18+00:00
Feel in the mood to talk about the stocks I'm gonna buy. Should you listen? Probably not, but fuck it we ball. I'll add a little reasoning next to each share explaining why. (BRK.B) Berkshire Hathaway - Well the regards have done it again. Every dumb motherfucker and their brother has convinced themselves that they're smarter than literally the undisputable best traders in the history of the US. I'll take it at a discount fo sho. (RDDT) Reddit - 70% you growth, 198.4 million domestic mau (estimated - 50 million dau), growing use overseas, and AI licensing. All very yummy. (NOW) Servicenow - a bunch of regarded middle aged wall street guys who have no clue how AI works have decided that AI will replace servicenow. The bear case is literally some cliche "AIpocalypse" nonsense that's not even coherent. They'll continue to make money hand over fist. (IOT) Samsara - IOT is the overlooked basis for all of tech infrastructure. Samsara has strong financials, revenue growth, revenue growth plans, and pricing. (AMZN) Amazon - Really good financials and pricing. Amazon leo is an underlooked growth play. (SOFI) SOFI - 40% yoy growth, 5.14 over sales, all while becoming a core player in US banking infrastructure. This is no longer a "loan" play anymore, it's an online bank with agressive customer acquisition and expansion. Let me know if you think I'm regarded or genius please. submitted by /u/ActuatorDisastrous29 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Why the app you’re using should be a stock you own ($RDDT)
2026-05-24T17:02:00+00:00
Let me start by saying, yeah I’m bag holding this bitch and no this is not financial advice. My positions are 700 shares @181 and 8 June 16th 2028 $100 calls. This is all my money and 20k of margin, money that I made working and investing aggressively while living at home. Everything I have. My current qualifications are as follows I’m currently unemployed and with great unemployment comes great free time to look at financials and listen to earnings calls. I took a intro to wall street class highschool in 2020 and won the class paper trading competition by yoloing all my capital into AMD MSFT and TSLA Now let’s get started, RDDT has been getting absolutely smoked this year. Worst performer in the WSB 2026 top picks by a good margin and one of the worst mid+ market cap performers period. Now if you just looked at their financial statements this would be interesting because well, they just posted their 6th straight quarter of 60%+ revenue growth, with Q1 2026 coming in 69% (nice) higher than last year. The reported 91.5% gross margin and 31% net margin last quarter, and cash position increased to almost 3B. These are not numbers of a struggling company, these are numbers of a company that’s just started getting the snowball rolling and is beginning to gain mass. I could go on about how fantastic this companies Financials look, and it’s my belief they will continue to improve. But why will they continue to improve? THE BUSINESS OF REDDIT Reddit makes over 90% of its revenue from advertising and the remaining ~10% from data deals and Reddit premium. This isn’t some new sexy business, it’s a tried and true strategy with roadmaps laid out by some of the most successful companies in the world. Some executives that helped those companies scale now work on the executive team of Reddit to help them accomplish a similar quality of ads. Amit puntambekar will be the new CTO who’s prior experience includes 5 years in the AI/ML side of meta working on content recommendation. Last earnings call Huffman was asked what parts of the business AI impacts, and Huffman responded with “all of them” and I think this is more true than people realize. It will help improve content feed recommendations, it will help with ad placement and drive lower CPA thus raising ad prices, it helps engineers be more efficient and other benefits. Everyone is wrapped up around AI deals which I do think they will continue and improve upon and I will mention later, but the fail to see the real AI tailwind is now Reddit can build an incredibly strong ad algorithm (increase ARPU) and content feed (increase frequency and engagement) without a ton of time or resources. I have confidence in Reddits management to execute well on the content feed and ad improvements, I’ve definitely noticed the ad targeting improvements myself. The main reason (and part of the reason I think it’s unreasonable to compare this company to snap or Pinterest) is because Reddit knows not who you are in terms of what your name is or what block you live on, but they know what your interest, passions, and problems are just based off what subreddits you’re viewing. Reddit and snap have basically the same US ARPU and every snap user I’ve ever known just uses it to send nudes or sell drugs. Don’t you guys agree you’re worth more than a lame Snapchat user? Anyway, Reddit knowing who you really are allows them to better tailor the experience to you, and I believe that’s what the new CTOs goal is. With over 500m weekly users, but only about a quarter of that being daily users, increasing frequency is how they can continue to post 60%+ revenue growth quarters and maybe even 70+ if we continue strong arpu growth on top of this frequency growth. THE RISKS OF REDDIT Alright so now that the glaze is done, let’s talk about some risk factors of Reddit. Because this week introduced some new ones to the table. Risk 1. AI reduces people’s visits to Reddit. I think this is overblown, we have seen traffic steadily increase even with the roll out of new models. I could see this reducing certain types of traffic like explain like I’m 5 or like resume help subreddits? I suppose this can also go hand in hand with the next risk as well. Risk 2. Google search changes announced the goal for a no click search engine. This is interesting because I do think of all the risks this one poses the greatest threat long term. But Google makes all their money from search and businesses paying for visibility so I’d be surprised if this actually went through but If they do it will reduce logged out traffic. While it won’t hurt the bottom line initially because the traffic from Google is low quality and has a very high bounce rate, it takes away opportunities to convert non engaged weekly users to a potential DAU. I’ll talk about this a bit more at the end when I speak of data deals. Risk 3. Metas new Forums app. I’m gonna be honest with you guy, I don’t think anyone is leaving Reddit for forums. I don’t see this as a threat. Only reason threads gets any usage is because zucc funnels engagement from instagram to threads. That app also launched with a lot more excitement and truly explosive user growth and still didn’t kill X. He can do the same with Facebook to forums but they I don’t see them being a credible threat that will erode the user base at all. Maybe less engaged users that just visit from Google now and then could also click a forum thread or a Facebook loyalist will use it but I think the nearly 6% sell off this caused Friday is overblown. THE ICING ON THE CAKE The data deals are the icing on the cake. The thing is they hedge on the lawsuits playing out in Reddits favor, but if they have a settlement with Anthropic and perplexity this could be a nice bump to the bottom line. And this is currently the more likely scenario. In addition, with the new changes that Google plans to implement I believe the will be paying a much higher price for the data when it comes up for renewal next year. Right now it was worth it to trade that higher up front fee for the traffic Google pushed through but if that stops then they should be charging Google every cent they can, which is likely way more than 60m. Should everything go right it’s possible Reddit sees 700m-1B in data licensing revenue in 2027, But if the courts throw out Reddits law suit it’s possible that the see 0 from this segment after the renewal. But with only a bit over 100m coming from this currently these data deals represent the icing rather than the cake. SO WHATS THE CAKE WORTH? These numbers don’t include potential data deals. Also these are just estimates until q4 2027 because that’s around when I intend to sell my calls (assuming they’re still worth something). Keep in mind, Q1 revenue growth of 69% and 31% net income margin and 2025 growth> 2024 growth but I will still assume growth begins fading, but I will use these numbers as guides for my assumptions. Also this doesn’t include cash on hand which adds about $15 to the share price. Also this assumes 200m shares out standing which is the currently fully diluted count which has remained steady. Bear case - growth fades from 69% in 2025 and no margin expansion in 2 years 2026 rev growth 45% (3.19B) 2027 rev growth 30% (4.15B) 2027 profit margin 31% (1.29B) 2027 share price @25x = $161.25 Base case - growth fades slower, slight margin expansion, I’d say the most likely scenario at least for this year. 2026 Rev growth 55% (3.41B) 2027 Rev growth 40% (4.77B) 2027 profit margin 35% (1.67B) 2027 share price @25x = $208.69 Bull case - growth rate barely fades y/y, margins continue expanding towards their goal of mid 40s and a slightly higher multiple backed by the higher growth. 2026 rev growth 65% (3.63B) 2027 rev growth 50% (5.45B) 2027 profit margin 40% (2.18B) 2027 share price @30x = $327 FINAL REMARKS Even if we assume Reddits growth rate drops by 25% this year and then a further 15% next year after a Q1 that was inline with last year, the stock still looks reasonable today even with a PE lower than its ever traded before. Not a slam dunk, but reasonable. With more realistic growth expectations the upside starts to become apparent. I’m not telling you to buy the stock, I actually think it probably has more downside in the near future. But I think that the app that we all use and love (okay maybe “tolerate”) might deserve a deeper look and a spot on your watch list. Invest in what you know, with a business model you understand and financials that back up the story, and holding through down turns because much easier, and maybe even a chance to average down. TLDR: The Google and meta fud is overblown. Reddit is rock solid both in its core user base and its financials. Probably trades down for another week or 2 but this stock deserves a spot on your watch list. submitted by /u/Navelabob [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
On Reddit RDDT, important difference:
2026-05-24T15:20:38+00:00
Re META FORUMS - They are Very different than Reddit that allows you to learn from anyone in the world : Meta’s new Forum appears to be centered on Facebook Groups, not an open reply system for any Meta user. Posts and replies are tied to the groups you’re in, and the app imports your existing Facebook groups when you log in.\[techcrunch +2\] submitted by /u/Always_Curious_One2 [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
Reddit -6% after Meta launches Forum app for Facebook Groups, seen as Reddit competitor
2026-05-23T14:58:15+00:00
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/reddit-stock-drops-after-meta-launches-forum-app.html Reddit shares fell almost 6% on Friday on concern that a new app from Meta called Forum could create an alternative avenue for internet users to congregate and create discussion groups. Forum, launched as a test app on Apple’s iOS, is part of Facebook Groups. Analysts at Truist wrote in a note on Friday that it’s “an attempt by the company to compete against Reddit as an online forum for public discourse” and “represents a new threat.” Reddit’s stock is now down almost 40% this year despite a strengthening online ad business. In April, the company reported its seventh-straight quarter of sales growth topping 60%. Meta, meanwhile, reported revenue growth of 33% in the latest quarter. “The risk from this move, if successful, is a gradual erosion of Reddit’s utility for casual users who have less community loyalty to Reddit and simply want answers,” wrote the Truist analysts, who recommend buying the stock. “This would affect non-core Reddit users more than directly logged-in, habitual users.” Reddit didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Meta, or Facebook as it was then known, created a separate Facebook Groups app over a decade ago but ended it in 2017. The service still exists as part of Facebook and, like Reddit, hosts discussion groups on all sorts of topics. https://preview.redd.it/uvfl9l6viw2h1.png?width=1583&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4cc8ba8ebef65a19083a0d760839df0ef93a17d submitted by /u/callsonreddit [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 1.00
Reddit stock drops 6% after Meta announces a Facebook Groups app
2026-05-23T00:57:59+00:00
Earlier today, META announced Forum, a standalone app for Facebook Groups. The Forum app is still being being tested (on Apple iOS). Facebook released an app for Facebook Groups in 2016 but discontinued it in 2017. Some analysts report that the Forum app will be a competitive threat to reddit, because casual redditors "just looking for answers" will use the Forum app instead of reddit. This seems odd to me, because Facebook Groups have existed for 20 years as online venues for Facebook users to engage in topic-specific discussion groups, without impacting reddit. Also, they aren't Q&A sites per se. Sub-reddits aren't Q&A sites either, although they sometimes serve that purpose. More interesting is that RDDT is down 40% so far in 2026, despite 7 quarters in a row of sales growth of 60% or more according to CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/reddit-stock-drops-after-meta-launches-forum-app.html submitted by /u/FreshOutOfGeekistan [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Space and value regard
2026-05-22T19:37:40+00:00
Now I know the 1 year track looks deceptive but its just because the graph looked better I promise. I'm a college student that got a little too into stocks the past year. After this crazy week I thought I would share my lessons learned and progress since I'm fairly proud of it! I like to do a mix of degenerate pump and dump timing and actually not regarded value investments, though its rare to tell the difference. I started out intelligent, with ETF and big company stock investments, but I learned about companies like reddit, rocket lab, and gradually got more degenerate from there. I was getting into bullshit penny stocks like castellum and was sitting sideways at ~$3000 for months before I decided to sell to get into better stocks. Around the start of last summer I decided I was responsible enough to start messing with options, right around the time the big $OPEN craze happened. The first big jump is the money I made from the $OPEN shit, I sold just after my calls went from $20k to $14k, and I near shit myself. The 2nd jump was an insane run from a combo of $UNH, $RDDT $GOOG value plays, if I remember correctly. I was sitting at around $27,500 and decided to stop investing for a while. A week later I wanted to jump on another pump and dump, beyond meat. I thought it would play out like OPEN but needless to say it didn't work. I was down to about $19k. After that I was burned from options for a while on top of dealing with a hellish semester. I was going into a few rare earth mineral and nuclear investments like CCJ, USAR, UUUU, LYSDY, but were largely canceled out by some bad holdover investments like GRAB and OKLO. I also put much of the cash I was willing to risk into RKLB but mostly tried to make sure I didn't dip below $20k in account value again. I missed out on many of the SSD, Memory, and AMD stocks as a result of school and being wary of the entire AI sector, I hate everything associated with that industry but alas AMD and MU. You would've been so fun to participate in. I'm not going to buy into that area now though, I have a feeling the only reason it's done so well is because of my abstinence. Don't ever invest for FOMO. I did get to hop into the giant bubble that was CAR. I have never seen so many billions erased so quickly in my meager 21 years, and I got a cool $5k out of puts outta that. Looking back I would've purchased closer to expiration puts because while I like to believe in long term holdings, it's really not something I'm good at. This brought me back into options but I'm being slightly less stupid. I'm trying to attempt fewer earnings plays, and when I do they HAVE to be in the money. I've made about $11k in ITM RKLB options expiring this December and another $8k in RKLB shares. I fucking love that company. Currently looking into long term options for TMC, currently have $7500 set aside for 2028 calls for $10. It is risky but I think there's far worse investments to be made. I think I'm going to stick to space and raw materials for a while, I may get into semiconductors but I've been late to too many AI hype stocks for me to feel comfortable investing, and I'm doing well enough as it is. The lessons I've learned is to take the L when the market gives it to you. The amount of calls that have gone straight to 0 because I hopiumed myself into believing it would go up is embarrassing. As for taking profits I'm not sure I've learned anything very useful outside of sell enough to break even, then let the rest ride as long as you feel confident in its growth. I plan to sell my RKLB calls once I think the market has hit peak euphoria after the SpaceX IPO. I tend to make very short term investments that last shorter than 3 months. For example, one of my first investments was RKLB back when it was $11.30 a share. I know time in the market beats timing the market long term, but at the same time, Im a college student. I didn't have money for that kind of patience. Now that I have this much money I may consider cooling things off with the majority of it, and keep options a fun side gig instead my main strategy, I don't know yet. The most important lesson for me that I've learned is don't do this shit as your main strategy for being successful. It's important yes, but don't make this your entire existence. That kind of hyperfocus makes you irrational and kind of insane with the pressure you put on yourself to be a millionaire next month. Try to have fun and don't expect more than a 50% gain at any given time. You're a lot better at playing the game when you're having fun. And yes I say game because that's what it is to me, its not a life line. Am I worried about being addicted to gambling? Somewhat. I've never going to bet on any polymarket or outcomes gambling, so thankfully I'm not going off the deep end. I'm a little more risk tolerant than what I probably should be, but I've learned to take the fucking L. It will save you so much grief and shame. The market is dumb, but don't blame it on your losses. I like to believe the market is 80% psychology, some random percentage fundamentals. But that random percentage determines how much of a bull/bear market it is. This isn't financial advice, and don't take anything I say seriously. I just wanted to share with folks who share my interests and hear about how batshit insane my decisions are, because I'm not gonna deny any of that lmao. Current positions in post. submitted by /u/SRVJimiHendrix3 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Meta releases a new Reddit-like app called Forum
2026-05-22T14:44:19+00:00
Meta has launched a new app called Forum without fanfare or even an official announcement. It is described as "a dedicated space for the conversations that matter most to you," created specifically for Facebook Groups. Users will need to have a Facebook account to be able to use Forum, and their profile and activity will carry over after they log in with their credentials. So it's not really a website for anonymous conversations like Reddit, but users will be able to use anonymized usernames like they already can on the main Facebook app. It's just that administrators will be able to see their real identities. If anyone was wondering why Reddit stock is down today, this is probably the answer. Threads previously copied Twitter/X, and it seems that it has 120+ millions of DAU (although I've never heard people actually using the app in my surroundings). Will this be a similar story or not? Read More: https://www.engadget.com/2179165/meta-forum-groups-app/ submitted by /u/StocksAction [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Thought $RDDT was a WSB pick for 2026
2026-05-20T17:27:15+00:00
Hold or buy more? submitted by /u/doctorqaz [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Protip: Bitte drückt nur EIN MAL auf "posten" bei neuem Beitrag. Auch wenn Fehlermeldungen kommen, es wird im Prinzip immer ein Post abgesetzt. Müllforum buggt gerade wieder extrem rum und wird es auch für immer. Man muss sich einfach daran gewöhnen. Und wichtig: Reddit wegshorten den Müllladen.
2026-05-18T18:09:57+00:00
Reddit schlimmer als TR submitted by /u/Dockerstar1995 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.94
RDDT Ads 🚀
2026-05-18T03:06:21+00:00
I think RDDT is printing cash from ads this quarter. I’ve never once seen an ad that I’ve wanted to click on. But in the last month something has definitely changed with their newsfeed UI that has me accidentally clicking on an ad at least once a day when I’m just trying to scroll. Has anyone else noticed this? I think this UI change is going go result in a one time surge in ad revenue this quarter before advertisers realize they’re getting shitty, ineffective leads and RDDT realizes they need to fix it. submitted by /u/nonamouss [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
3rd party review of RDDT data shows Very high monetization upside :
2026-05-15T14:55:37+00:00
This is from a publication that reviews data from marketing channels : Reddit highlights rising opportunities for CPG marketers 2026-05-15 00:53:33 GMT Andrew Hutchinson (Social Media Today) Reddit published a new report that examines how CPG brands can reach target audiences with Reddit promotions. This comes as more people visit the platform seeking information as part of their discovery process. Reddit has become a key resource for product insights, with the app seeing a 40% year-over-year increase in the number of high-intent shopping conversations on the platform, according to a recent press release. This presents more opportunities for brands, and Reddit said product conversations continue to rise within subreddit communities. As per Reddit: “Over the last six months, the U.S. alone saw over 3.1B grocery shopping conversations. From ‘which oat milk actually tastes best’ to ‘what’s the right food for a new puppy,’ shoppers are using Reddit to crowdsource real opinions at every stage of the journey.” Reddit’s report, created in partnership with Attain, shows that Reddit delivers stronger lifetime value across every major CPG category over a five-year horizon. “Reddit shoppers consistently generated higher post-acquisition value across every category, including 15% in beverage, 14% in food and 17% in personal care and beauty,” the report said. Lifetime value in this context reflects the total projected value that a buyer is expected to generate over a five-year span, beginning from the point of their first purchase in the category. In other words, consumers who are conducting research on Reddit are more likely to make expanded purchases within each category, underlining the importance of connecting with them to build that initial brand relationship. The data also showed that Reddit users spend 22% more on their pets, 17% more on their food and 12% more on their beauty products than non-users. Essentially, Reddit users are likely to spend more, and across more categories, based on the research and insights they glean from the app. Reddit also referenced another study, conducted by Circana, which showed that Reddit delivers meaningfully higher returns for CPG advertisers, outperforming other social platforms across the U.S. and Western Europe. “On average, Reddit generates 1.5x higher ROAS for CPG advertisers vs. other social platforms,” the report said. The data suggests that Reddit could be a key promotional platform for CPG brands, putting brand promotions in front of consumers at just the right time within their discovery process, which could help to drive more sales activity as a result. submitted by /u/Always_Curious_One2 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Meme Stock Redditors Weigh In Against Semiannual Reporting Shift
2026-05-13T15:58:07+00:00
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/meme-stock-redditors-weigh-in-against-semiannual-reporting-shift WallStreetBets filed a public comment opposing a proposed shift to semiannual securities reports, instead of quarterly reports. The community says quarterly reporting is a mechanism by which retail investors taught themselves to read financial statements, and reducing the frequency would cut that mechanism in half. WallStreetBets is asking the Securities and Exchange Commission not to make it harder for people to participate in public markets, stating that the Commission has spent 90 years making it easier for people like them to participate on fair terms. submitted by /u/bloomberglaw [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
SP500 going to 12,000. DD Inside!
2026-05-13T02:00:25+00:00
Yo everyone. I've been running around Asia making chicken videos on YouTube. So you KNOW I'm a damn good bet when it comes to financial markets. I even have a CFA thingy-majig. Okay, so how do I this market is going up and to the right? Aside from the fact that it ALWAYS DOES ANYWAY? Check this out. Ask yourself real quick. It's 2030 and there are three scenarios: Scenario A: The SP500 sits at 8,500 after slightly recovering from a 40% pullback in late 2026/2027. Average home price has also slightly recovered and sits at a tad over $500k. Unemployed edged slightly up and inflation has run hot so the average consumer is struggling. Scenario B: The SP500 sits at 6,500 after a pullback due to the AI boom unwinding. Private credit has been schlacked and semi industry is overleveraged on more expensive debt. The average home has fallen to around $400k as the economy has slowed. The average consumer still struggles but doesn't feel left behind. Scenario C: Blast off. AI revolutionizes productivity, most people are useless. The SP500 rockets to over 10,000 and the average US home is over $750k, with the average home in desireable MSA's now standing at well over $1.5m. The average consumer is effectively priced out of life at this point and while they don't have to worry about hunger, they're basically just pawns in the game. Now think about history, which scenario is the most likely? Obviously the one that screws over your average Joe the most. So C it is! Positions: 1,000 shares long $RDDT. 500 shares long $CRCL. 500 shares long $PM (tobacco will keep the people happy). 500 shares long CATL (300750). submitted by /u/Illustrious-Boss9356 [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
Fuck Al - I have a list of energy/industrials companies but each one has their flaws. Would value your perspective.
2026-05-12T13:09:45+00:00
Of course I could invest into Google or Nvidia, but I am open to slightly more risk, and those major firms are already overcrowded + there is a huge rotation of capital into AI/semi/memory. Sure, the market can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent but Im buying shares not options, and there isnt only AI industry out there. Here is the list: CEG - ran a lot already plus worse performance in bull markets, politically sensitive and a lot of good news is already priced in, beat Q1 massively Vistra - huge upside, but margin collapse in 2025 is concerning, more energy mix RHM - defence firm with huge upside, free cash flow guidance came in below analyst expectations, missed guidance 3 or 4 times in a row, 42% down from ATH, I perceive as a contrarian move, produces heavy machinery while wars are now based on drones, JPM cut their targets CSG - czech defence firm, 52% down from IPO due to a short-seller report, which they know dismissed META - 20% from ATH, Rev/margins and other metrics look good, increased CAPEX, P/E low for a tech firm, lost money on VR and ads constitute 97% of revenue so not a lot of diversification RDDT - 30% from ATH, I think it is perceived as an AI-adjacent firm due to the contracts with OpenAI (which have low value and Im waiting for an update), very strong rev and margins, my problem is that Reddit is not as popular as Facebook/Instagram and its harder to mix ads with the text-based content LHX - L3Harris - defence firm, revenue mix (Space & Mission Systems, Communications & Spectrum Dominance, Missile Solutions), low upside? submitted by /u/Resident-Paint-8318 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Der Reddit ist nicht mehr was es einmal war
2026-05-12T07:11:14+00:00
GameStop uns Beyond Meat hatten ihre Phasen, es war wie ein guter Ausflug, eine schöne Zeit. Öl, Eselmetalle und Crypto sind so kleine Happen für zwischendurch aber Rheiner ist doch unser Lifestyle..... Der Reddit blühte mit Rheiner zusammen am stärksten und zeigte sein ganzes Potenzial ich vermisse diese Zeit 🚀🐒😔 submitted by /u/We_arechecking [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
RDDT is one of the best buys atm
2026-05-12T04:41:08+00:00
My thesis on being bullish on Reddit is simple: 1) None of us are going anywhere 2) There is significant expansion opportunities for advertising 3) It's market cap is 30b, which does not feel right (I know this sounds stupid, but it's true) 4) Reddit is no longer only used by weird internet people, a lot of normal people are beginning to use the platform All I care about is scalability, and I think Reddit is positioned extremely well to expand its user count and advertising landscape. I come to Reddit daily because it's one of the few places that I can discuss certain topics with others, and I can't foresee this "communal" value being replaced by another platform in the near future. submitted by /u/whitesweatshirt [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.64
RDDT and NOK gains
2026-05-11T16:31:07+00:00
Held over the weekend. Just getting started 🔥 submitted by /u/ora408 [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Is Reddit (RDDT) One of the Unstoppable Stocks to Buy in 2026? - Yahoo Finance
2026-05-10T15:53:58+00:00
Is Reddit (RDDT) One of the Unstoppable Stocks to Buy in 2026? Yahoo Finance
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Is Reddit (RDDT) One of the Unstoppable Stocks to Buy in 2026? - Yahoo Finance UK
2026-05-10T15:53:58+00:00
Is Reddit (RDDT) One of the Unstoppable Stocks to Buy in 2026? Yahoo Finance UK
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
My friends and family can never know (My portfolio)😔✊
2026-05-08T01:33:28+00:00
My portfolio from last year to now, the good and bad, a lot of margin (portfolio diversity wrong). AMD (35k+) -> AMZN INTC (10k+) -> LMT FIG (34k+)-> FIG (20k+)-> RDDT (20k+) -> SMR OKLO UUUU (40k+) -> tech stocks fucked (HOOD, Netflix, Reddit) dummy held for awhile -> Rubrik NOW (10k+) -> All-in (NOW) Sorry didn’t screenshot losses in between, cause didn’t feel good. But about (-50k) from all time at 87k right now, feels lowkey bad. submitted by /u/robotpanda96 [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 1.00
$RDDT to $200 with 21% of My Portfolio
2026-05-06T14:39:19+00:00
I have been bullish on $RDDT since my initial entry around liberation day last year. Placed some $200 calls today for Aug-26, Dec-26, and Jun-27 (first image). Holding around 140 shares for an average cost basis of $118 (lots in the second image). For the option contracts, there are a number of interesting tailwinds for the business following this explosive earnings season, such as continued cash compounding in future earnings calls, S&P inclusion, and renewal of the Google / OpenAI contracts in Q1 2027 (see third image). For my share position, I am trying to comp out what $RDDT could become as compared to $META (fourth image with $s in billions and users in millions), $RDDT's Adj. Market Cap after removing cash and share buybacks drives you down to ~$26bn. If you believe that Instagram as a comparable company, is 1/3 of $META and then add a 50% margin of safety ("MOS") to the estimate, $RDDT should have a 9.5x growth multiple over the long run, bringing the market cap closer to >$300bn. Being overly tied to $GOOG isn't necessarily a bad thing for $RDDT, and there are strong synergies for both companies. $RDDT's user base and 20-year data moat of 25bn conversations across 100s of millions of users will likely prove to be a very valuable commodity to all of these AI platforms and help diversify the current revenue concentration from 80% ad-revenue toward secure API data model training for each of the agentic agents. $RDDT sits on a fortress of a balance sheet with 1000x more cash than debt, strong revenue growth, high EBTIDA margins, low capex, and unbelievable gross margins truly make $RDDT a one-of-one business (see last image). Plus, I use it every day to hang out with you retards. YOLO - let me know what you think. submitted by /u/carzzn [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Wieso sehe ich in diesem Sub so wenig über $RDDT? Schlaft ihr alle oder wollt ihr keine Gains? 🚀🤡
2026-05-05T22:24:45+00:00
Leute, ernsthaft jetzt… Ich scrolle hier durch und sehe den 500. Loss-Porn zu irgendwelchen schwindligen Hebelzertifikaten, aber niemand redet über die Goldmine, auf der wir hier gerade alle buchstäblich sitzen. Wir benutzen die Plattform 24/7, aber checkt ihr eigentlich, was bei $RDDT gerade abgeht? Während ihr euch über eure verbrannten Ersparnisse ausheult, druckt das Management hier im Hintergrund pures Gold. Hier ist die DD für die Lesefaulen unter euch: 1. Die Earnings haben die Erwartungen nicht nur geschlagen, sie haben sie hingerichtet 📈 Q1 2026 war ein absolutes Massaker für die Bären. • Revenue: 663 Mio. $ (+69% YoY!). • EPS: 1,01 $ (Erwartet war fast die Hälfte!). Jeder Analyst, der behauptet hat, Reddit könne nicht monetarisieren, frisst gerade seine eigenen Notizen. 2. Wir sind das Futter für die AI-Overlords 🤖 Jedes Mal, wenn ihr hier einen dummen Kommentar schreibt, klingelt bei Reddit die Kasse. • Data Licensing: Google und OpenAI zahlen dreistellige Millionenbeträge, um unsere "hochwertigen" (hust) Diskussionen für ihre KIs zu nutzen. • Capex-Gott: Reddit hat im Q1 nur 1 Mio. $ für Hardware/Infrastruktur ausgegeben. Ein verdammter Dollar Investition für Millionen an Profit. Das ist die effizienteste Marge, die ich je gesehen habe. 3. Google ist jetzt ein Reddit-Proxy 🔍 Hängt mal ein „reddit“ an eure Google-Suche an, macht ihr eh schon alle. Google hat Reddit offiziell in den Suchalgorithmus geheiratet. Die Daily Active Users sind auf 127 Millionen explodiert. Das ist kein Forum mehr, das ist das Betriebssystem des menschlichen Wissens. 4. Ad-Revenue & E-Commerce 🛒 Die Werbe-Plattform ist endlich erwachsen geworden. Die Integration mit Shopify bedeutet, dass Brands direkt in den Subreddits verkaufen. Die Conversion-Rates sind geisteskrank, weil die Leute hier sowieso schon in ihren Nischen-Blasen hängen und kaufbereit sind. 5. Das Chart-Setup 🚀 Die Aktie ist nach den Earnings um über 13% nach oben geschossen und hat die 20-Tage-Linie als Support bestätigt. Analysten-Targets liegen bei 220 $+ . Wir haben hier noch massiv Luft nach oben, bevor die FOMO-Welle der Boomer-Fonds richtig losgeht. Fazit: Reddit ist aktuell das einzige Tech-Unternehmen, das massiv wächst, profitabel ist UND kaum Fixkosten hat. Wenn ihr lieber weiter Pennystocks jagt, bitte. Ich reite die Rakete 🚀 nach oben. Position: Long & leicht gehebelt. 💎🙌🦧 Disclaimer: Ich bin ein Autist, kein Analberater. Macht eure eigene DD, bevor ihr euer Kindergeld verzockt. submitted by /u/No-Importance8778 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
SNAP going up after earnings tomorrow after the bell seems too obvious… and it worries me.
2026-05-05T20:17:48+00:00
Three months ago when RDDT, PINS and SNAP reported Q4 earnings all three of them cratered. Since, they have moved very similarly as they have recovered to their pre-earnings prices. On Thursday, RDDT reported Q1 and it’s up over 20 % since the call. Yesterday, PINS reported Q1 and while the initial price reaction of 20 % up didn’t last, it closed up 7 % today. Tomorrow, SNAP reports Q1 earnings after the bell and it feels kinda obvious their results will be good also? Yes, I know it sounds naive and simple-minded. Just because peers had a good quarter there’s no guarantee SNAP would too. SNAP is flat since Thursday when RDDT reported so it hasn’t exactly rallied in sympathy with the others despite their good reports. I do know how I might sound like a fool- I realize the logic above doesn’t encapsulate everything at stake here. Just because Macy’s had a good quarter there’s no guarantee Kohl’s did too. I feel like the fear that ad revenue is challenged is not as real as prior to knowing Reddit and Pinterest earnings though. I was long 40,000 shares before SNAP Q4 earnings when the stock price was $6. A few months later the stock price was $3.8. Now it’s back to $6 and I’m long 40,000 shares going into Q1 earnings… I really hope they beat and numbers are great. Hard to stomach if it crashes when PINS and RDDT surged. submitted by /u/lies_are_comforting [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
RDDT hat die Erwartungen gerade pulverisiert: 677 % EPS‑Sprung und massive S&P‑500- & AI-Katalysatoren stehen bevor
2026-05-04T17:41:24+00:00
Reddit meldete sein drittes Quartal in Folge mit >200 % EPS‑Wachstum (+677 %, 7,8x). Das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) ist auf 48 gesunken, das Forward-KGV liegt bei 19 (47,6/2,5). Im Juli wird ein weiteres Quartal mit >200 % EPS‑Wachstum berichtet. RDDTs 2026 Q1 EPS von 1,01 $ hat die Erwartungen für 2027 Q1 EPS von 0,98 $ übertroffen . Ja, RDDT hat 2 Jahre Analystenerwartungen auf einmal übertroffen . Institutionen werden bald die Erwartungen für das Ergebnis 2027 und die Kursziele (>$400) auf 2026 vorziehen, was eine starke Neubewertung auslösen wird. Das Unternehmen verfügt über eine der stärksten Bilanzen am Markt, mit 1,4 Mrd. $ Cash und minimalen Schulden (21 Mio. $). Reddit hat nur 203 Mio. ausstehende Aktien, im Vergleich zu 4,3 Mrd. bei Netflix und 2,1 Mrd. bei Uber. Nach einem kumulativen 20:1-Split läge der aktuelle Kurs bei 8,3 $. Bevorstehende Katalysatoren Schnelles EPS-Wachstum; Quartalsberichte alle 3 Monate. Aufnahme in den S&P 500 (wahrscheinlich innerhalb der nächsten 2 Quartale; derzeit unter den Top 5 der Kandidaten). Googles AI-Deal wurde im Januar 2024 unterzeichnet, der OpenAI-Deal etwa im Mai 2024, jeweils für 2-3 Jahre; Verlängerungen könnten jederzeit bis Mai nächsten Jahres erfolgen. submitted by /u/tomato232 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Just rotated my SNDK gains into RDDT. Who else is riding?
2026-05-04T14:21:32+00:00
Snagged shares of $RDDT. The Q1 earnings report was a monster—totally invalidated the January crash bears. 91% gross margins are basically software-level efficiency. Shooting for that $200 psychological level now that the $183 resistance is in sight. 🚀🚀🚀 submitted by /u/astontj85 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
$RDDT könnt Long gehen
2026-05-04T13:38:18+00:00
**Wir gehen long** reddit Inc. Aktie submitted by /u/Retirement_or_Lambo [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
Intel stock grandma and tariffs are a prime examples of why you never listen to reddit.
2026-05-04T08:41:18+00:00
Nerd emoji: bUt YOur pOsT iS iN ReDDiT thEN i Don'T lIsTEn t0 Y00 m 1 R1gHt!!!??? This subreddit, and all subreddits pertaining to stocks has created some kind of toxic environment and behavior where people who have never made money or profited for some reason feel the need to act like they are some expert, make predictions, and make fun of people who have created their own thesis and ideas on why they own a stock. And time and time again the Dunning Kruger effect is proven if you look back at posts in a timeframe of at least a year and beyond. Prime example: Intel grandma. Guy who inherited 700k from grandma decides to put it all in to Intel. His thesis being that due to the market emphasis around tech and AI, tensions between China and Taiwan that makes semi-conductors, the USA emphasis on trying to focus on making their own semi-conductor production, and Intel focusing on building plants and restructuring their company will pay off. Do I think he's right, or would I ever put all my money in one stock? No, but that was his thesis. Come a 30% drop and everyone in wallstreebets and this subreddit are making fun of him. Every redditor thinks "Nana!" jokes are original funny any time Intel is brought up for discussion. There is no discussion that be had on Intel because it's the same, repetitive jokes over and over again. That guy if he had not listened to reddit would be in retirement today with over 2.5 million $$$. 2nd example: when Trump was doing his tariff run and the market plummeted everyone suddenly became an econ expert. The US economy is going to the toilet, the hurt just started, something something ports are going to shut down. Any time people offered the tried and tested method of buying stocks when there is fear in the markets was made fun of. I had people message me for simply stating that it's a good time to load up on your favorite stocks "It must be difficult to cope when you're losing so much money." People who did not buy during Trump's little crash lost out on a 50% return today if we want to just use the NASDAQ as an example. Use any other metric you want: you lost out on a return if you didn't buy. Want more examples? 21 tech crash and you were a laughing stock here if you wanted to buy stocks like META. COVID? You made fun of as an idiot if you wanted to buy stocks. China trade war? Same thing. Listening to reddit is the best way to never make money. If you've done your due diligence in learning the simple rules of the stock market that a youtube video can teach you, along with having an actual thesis on to why you want to buy a certain stock after researching it, stick to your conviction. Reddit on stocks has been more wrong than right every time. submitted by /u/ryanxwonbinx [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Every Layer of the AI Money Printer Got Front-Run. Except One.
2026-05-03T16:34:17+00:00
Everyone called GPU bulls idiots in 2022. NVDA went from $150 to $950. Those idiots bought boats. Then memory. Turns out every AI forward pass is basically a memory bandwidth problem with a GPU stapled to it. MU ran, SK Hynix became the most important company on earth and muricans still can’t spell it. Then it was powers turn. VST CEG NRG went stupid because someone finally asked what the fuck these data centers actually plug into. Then it was onto cooling. Then helium of all things, because chip fabs need it at every advanced node and Qatar just got blown up. Every single time: one guy figures out the constraint, buys early, posts gains, everyone else piles in six months late. every layer of this AI money machine has been discovered and front-run at this point,except the data layer, where RDDT is the biggest swinging dick. The human-generated, unfiltered, sometimes-completely-unhinged signal that makes these models not completely brain-dead. You cannot fake this stuff synthetically without the model quality going to shit. You’re literally generating it right now by reading this. “okay dumbass what about YouTube and Wikipedia” you ask? YouTube transcripts are garbage-in garbage-out. Wikipedia is a curated encyclopedia written by cautious virgins, useful but static and thin. Reddit generates Wikipedia’s entire catalogue every single month. Steve Huffman said it himself in the earnings call last Thursday. And it’s not just volume, it’s the structure. Actual threaded debate with domain experts in niche subs saying things they’d never put on a resume. Upvotes naturally filtering signal from noise. That’s exactly what frontier model training needs and you can’t replicate it anywhere else. So why hasn’t the market figured this out?Because there’s no physical bottleneck to photograph. You can’t show someone an empty helium tank or a GPU waitlist. So Wall Street just models Reddit as a mid ad-tech company with a weird side hustle and moves on. Early Google licensing deals got signed before anyone understood what this data was worth. Those renewals are coming. Reddit is also actively suing Anthropic and Perplexity for scraping without paying. If they win or settle favorably, it doesn’t just help Reddit, it sets legal precedent that reprices training data across the entire industry. The frontier labs are data-constrained now, not compute-constrained. Altman has basically said it out loud. Reddit generates exactly what they need, every day, forever. Every bottleneck had its moment, datas next and there’s only one pure play. Position: 5000 shares submitted by /u/early-retirement-plz [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
$RDDT hab euch vor 42 Tagen gesagt, dass ihr hier einsteigen sollt. Folgt rein für weitere 🚀 LFG!!!!!?
2026-05-01T20:32:26+00:00
submitted by /u/Retirement_or_Lambo [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Reddit wird noch richtig explodieren.
2026-05-01T07:37:25+00:00
Ich habs hier mehrfach geschrieben, reddit hat mit den earnings richtig abgeliefert. Das wird am Montag bei uns so ne dicke grüne Lunte im Chart submitted by /u/Chaba234 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Reddit reports 69% jump in revenue, topping analyst estimates
2026-04-30T21:35:39+00:00
Reddit reported better-than-expected profit and revenue in its first-quarter earnings report on Thursday, and also issued an optimistic forecast. The stock jumped 6% in extended trading. Here's how the company did compared with LSEG estimates: Earnings per share: $1.01 vs. 58 cents expected Revenue: $663 million vs. $611 million expected Revenue jumped 69% in the quarter from $392 million a year earlier, Reddit said in an earnings release. Net income soared to $204 million, or $1.01 per share, from $26 million, or 13 cents per share, a year ago. Reddit said second-quarter sales should be in the range of $715 million to $725 million, ahead of analyst estimates of $712 million. Adjusted earnings will be between $285 million and $295 million, topping the $276 million average estimate. The strong results continue a trend in online advertising. Meta and Alphabet, the leaders in digital ads, both beat on revenue in their earnings reports on Wednesday, showing their fastest growth in years. They also revealed plans to increase the amount of money they're spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Alphabet shares rose Thursday, while Meta shares sank, underscoring investor concernsabout the Facebook-parent's hefty AI spending and its lack of a cloud business. Reddit's daily active unique users, or DAUq, rose 17% year-over-year to 126.8 million for the quarter, ahead of analyst estimates of 125.9 million. Average revenue per user, or ARPU, was $5.23, topping analyst estimates of $4.81. The company's U.S.-specific ARPU came in at $9.63, ahead of the $8.53 that Wall Street was projecting. "Reddit is a one-of-one business powered by deeply engaged communities and authentic human conversation," Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said in a statement. "That foundation is driving a rare combination of growth, profitability, and efficiency, and giving Reddit a unique advantage in the age of AI." submitted by /u/2plus2_equals_5 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
$RDDT ungewöhnlich hohe Handels Aktivität im nachbörslichen Handel 🚀🚀🚀
2026-04-30T20:31:29+00:00
Bald Zahlen! 🚀 Hebt ab !!! 🔮👈🏻🦧📈📈📈 submitted by /u/Retirement_or_Lambo [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Reddit reports 69% jump in revenue, topping analyst estimates
2026-04-30T20:23:59+00:00
submitted by /u/Sweaty_Rub4322 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Reddit earnings sind am kochen erwartete EPS gedoppelt - Montag wird der Call mitgenommen
2026-04-30T20:14:56+00:00
submitted by /u/Popular_Tomorrow_204 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
YOLO: We ready for Reddit earnings??
2026-04-30T19:51:24+00:00
We gonna see a big pop and daddy is gonna re-invest it right back into the casino. Position: long high big and stiff DD: Reddit is a training site for ChatGPT which likes goblins. Knob gobblin. Gobbling deez nuts, etc. submitted by /u/Impressive_Order60 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
RDDT DD, 2026 Earnings
2026-04-30T11:56:01+00:00
I'll be examining RDDT's 2025 revenues, expenses, EBITDA, and give a 2026 EBITDA estimate with this data. Later in the post, we'll take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to the initial 2026 estimates and to other companies growth so we can then give a share price forecast for 2026. First, let's see what RDDT had to say about their Q1 growth. In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%. The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint. Revenue, expenses and EBITDA Using previous earnings reports and the data above, I've plugged all this into a table, to give us... Q Rev Exp EBITDA Q1 2025 $392.4 M $388.5 M $3.9 M Q2 2025 $499.6 M $431.9 M $67.7 M Q3 2025 $584.9 M $446.4 M $138.5 M Q4 2025 $725.6 M $493.8 M $231.8 M Q1 2026 $605 M $385 M $220 M Revenues are increasing quarter-to-quarter by 13%! Except for the forecasted expenses in Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference gives us an expense increase average of 0.8% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, the first quarter of 2026, we get an average expense increase of 8.4% per quarter. For this post, we'll assume expenses will increase at this 8.4% rate. (Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiplying the total DAUq by the ARPU values, you get the exact revenue for the year... I'm other words, ARPU encompasses AI training data and other revenues.) 2026 Outlook Q rev exp EBITDA Q1 2026 $605 M $385 M $220 M Q2 2026 $683.7 M $417.3 M $266.4 M Q3 2026 $772.5 M $452.4 M $320.1 M Q4 2026 $873.0 M $490.4 M $382.6 M For the full year, if they keep their 13% quarterly revenue growth, they'll receive $2.93 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 33.4%! I'll go into more detail about why revenue has room to run later, when I examine DAUq and ARPU. Expenses of $1745.1 M, compared to the total of $1760.6 M in 2025, this is a 0.9% decrease. As for EBITDA, the full year outlook is $1189.1 M, compared to the $441.9 M in 2025 and an increase of 269.1%. DAUq and ARPU RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for "U.S." and "International." So, what are the numbers for 2025... Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 '25 US 50.1 M $6.27 Intl 58.0 M $1.34 Q2 '25 US 50.3 M $7.87 Intl 60.1 M $1.73 Q3 '25 US 51.6 M $9.04 Intl 64.4 M $1.84 Q4 '25 US 52.5 M $10.79 Intl 68.9 M $2.31 In 2025 the DAUq for US steadily increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 19.9% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%. This gives us revenue of... Q region rev region rev total Rev Q1 '25 US $314.13 M intl $77.72 M $391.33 M Q2 '25 US $395.86 M intl $103.97 M $499.83 M Q3 '25 US $466.46 M intl $118.50 M $584.96 M Q4 '25 US $566.47 M intl $159.16 M $725.63 M Calculated revenues are very close to the values posted in earnings reports, indicating that all revenue sources are included in one ARPU value. Other companies' user growth rates and ARPU (Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a direct competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value... That's not including the Chinese version of TikTok, only international.) Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta . Their DAU was 3.58 B at the end of 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4% per quarter since the beginning of 2024. Their ARPU is significantly larger at $16.96 at the end of 2025, and their ARPU growth rate is 6.2% per quarter. I'm going to cap RDDT's ARPU and DAUq growth rates to half of Meta's, ARPU at 3% and DAUq 0.7%... (Honestly, I'm doing this because I ran the numbers with higher growth rates and it blows RDDT off the charts for net income. I need to keep things in line with expectations.) 2026 DAUq and ARPU Okay, RDDT's ARPU has room to run and they have DAUq growth... There's no guidance on DAUq or ARPU for 2026 so we need to create our own... Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 '26 US 52.9 M $11.11 Intl 69.4 M $2.38 Q2 '26 US 53.2 M $11.45 Intl 69.9 M $2.45 Q3 '26 US 53.6 M $11.79 Intl 70.4 M $2.52 Q4 '26 US 54.0 M $12.14 Intl 70.9 M $2.60 For 2026, RDDT will have a worldwide daily active community 1/5 that of Meta's, with revenue equalling... Q region rev region rev total Rev Q1 '26 US $587.72 M intl $165.17 M $752.89 M Q2 '26 US $609.14 M intl $171.26 M $780.40 M Q3 '26 US $631.94 M intl $177.41 M $809.35 M Q4 '26 US $655.56 M intl $184.34 M $839.9 M Earlier, I calculated $2.93 B for the full year. This compares to the $3.18 B here. A difference of $250 M. This tells us that RDDT is expected to have significantly slowing revenue. I'll be using the initial value going forward, as they take into consideration Q1's slowing revenue. EPS and price targets For software companies, the precedent is to maintain a steady shared count by issuing buybacks while issuing stock-based compensation. We're going to assume that this trend is maintained. Q other income tax shares EPS Q1 '25 $20.5 M $(1.7) M 206.0 M $0.13 Q2 '25 $21.2 M $(0.4) M 206.6 M $0.43 Q3 '25 $22.0 M $(2.1) M 206.1 M $0.79 Q4 '25 $23.0 M $3.2 M 206.1 M $1.22 Average increase in other income is 3.9%, and average increase in taxes is 98.5% but sure to is sporadic nature we'll keep it at the Q4 2025 value. And for 2026... Q other income tax EPS TTM x 30 PE x 45 PE Q1 '26 $23.9 M $3.2 M $0.93 $100.96 $151.44 Q2 '26 $24.8 M $3.2 M $1.40 $129.98 $194.98 Q3 '26 $25.8 M $3.2 M $1.66 $156.17 $234.25 Q4 '26 $26.8 M $3.2 M $1.97 $178.70. $268.04 With a 45 PE, in Q1 we should see a share price of $151.44. With the current 60 PE, a price target of 200 is probable on a strong beat. That being said, I limited RDDT's DAUq and ARPU growth to half of Meta's, and kept the expense growth rates at 8% (despite the average pointing to it staying flat). Disclaimer: 1600 RDDT shares submitted by /u/run_midnight [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Expectations for RDDT earnings today?
2026-04-30T07:57:29+00:00
Reddit (RDDT) is scheduled to release its Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026, after the market closes. Analysts are anticipating significant growth, with revenue projections around $607 million (roughly 57% year-over-year increase) and an expected earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $0.62. Strong user growth and ad revenue are key drivers for the quarter.  Key Expectations for Q1 2026 Earnings Date: April 30, 2026. Revenue Forecast: $595 million to $605 million (52% to 54% year-over-year growth). Earnings Per Share (EPS): Estimated at $0.62. Key Drivers: Growth in advertising revenue, particularly through improved ad tech, increased user base, and continued expansion of data licensing.  Previous Quarter Performance (Q4 2025 Context) Revenue: Reported $725.61 million, significantly beating estimates. EPS: Reported $1.24, beating the consensus estimate of $0.96. Growth: Revenue was up 69.7% compared to the same quarter in the previous year.  submitted by /u/Kill_4209 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Reddit wird pumpen und unsere Märkte sind 3 Tage zu
2026-04-30T07:32:20+00:00
Ich hasse Feiertage an der Börse. Ich habe hohe Erwartungen an die Reddit earnings heute Abend um 22:30. Ich hoffe es bleibt mehr als ein kurzer Spike nach oben. submitted by /u/Chaba234 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Reddit
2026-04-30T06:17:10+00:00
Was ist eure Meinung zu Reddit? Ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass heute vor den Earnings eine gute Chance sein könnte. Was denkt ihr? submitted by /u/ContributionOk6237 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
RDDT DD, 2026 Earnings
2026-04-30T04:19:37+00:00
I'll be examining RDDT's 2025 revenues, expenses, EBITDA, and give a 2026 EBITDA estimate with this data. Later in the post, we'll take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to the initial 2026 estimates and to other companies growth so we can then give a share price forecast for 2026. First, let's see what RDDT had to say about their Q1 growth. In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%. The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint. Revenue, expenses and EBITDA Using previous earnings reports and the data above, I've plugged all this into a table, to give us... Q Rev Exp EBITDA Q1 2025 $392.4 M $388.5 M $3.9 M Q2 2025 $499.6 M $431.9 M $67.7 M Q3 2025 $584.9 M $446.4 M $138.5 M Q4 2025 $725.6 M $493.8 M $231.8 M Q1 2026 $605 M $385 M $220 M Revenues are increasing quarter-to-quarter by 13%! Except for the forecasted expenses in Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference gives us an expense increase average of 0.8% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, the first quarter of 2026, we get an average expense increase of 8.4% per quarter. For this post, we'll assume expenses will increase at this 8.4% rate. (Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiplying the total DAUq by the ARPU values, you get the exact revenue for the year... I'm other words, ARPU encompasses AI training data and other revenues.) 2026 Outlook Q rev exp EBITDA Q1 2026 $605 M $385 M $220 M Q2 2026 $683.7 M $417.3 M $266.4 M Q3 2026 $772.5 M $452.4 M $320.1 M Q4 2026 $873.0 M $490.4 M $382.6 M For the full year, if they keep their 13% quarterly revenue growth, they'll receive $2.93 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 33.4%! I'll go into more detail about why revenue has room to run later, when I examine DAUq and ARPU. Expenses of $1745.1 M, compared to the total of $1760.6 M in 2025, this is a 0.9% decrease. As for EBITDA, the full year outlook is $1189.1 M, compared to the $441.9 M in 2025 and an increase of 269.1%. DAUq and ARPU RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for "U.S." and "International." So, what are the numbers for 2025... Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 '25 US 50.1 M $6.27 Intl 58.0 M $1.34 Q2 '25 US 50.3 M $7.87 Intl 60.1 M $1.73 Q3 '25 US 51.6 M $9.04 Intl 64.4 M $1.84 Q4 '25 US 52.5 M $10.79 Intl 68.9 M $2.31 In 2025 the DAUq for US steadily increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 19.9% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%. This gives us revenue of... Q region rev region rev total Rev Q1 '25 US $314.13 M intl $77.72 M $391.33 M Q2 '25 US $395.86 M intl $103.97 M $499.83 M Q3 '25 US $466.46 M intl $118.50 M $584.96 M Q4 '25 US $566.47 M intl $159.16 M $725.63 M Calculated revenues are very close to the values posted in earnings reports, indicating that all revenue sources are included in one ARPU value. Other companies' user growth rates and ARPU (Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a direct competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value... That's not including the Chinese version of TikTok, only international.) Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta . Their DAU was 3.58 B at the end of 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4% per quarter since the beginning of 2024. Their ARPU is significantly larger at $16.96 at the end of 2025, and their ARPU growth rate is 6.2% per quarter. I'm going to cap RDDT's ARPU and DAUq growth rates to half of Meta's, ARPU at 3% and DAUq 0.7%... (Honestly, I'm doing this because I ran the numbers with higher growth rates and it blows RDDT off the charts for net income. I need to keep things in line with expectations.) 2026 DAUq and ARPU Okay, RDDT's ARPU has room to run and they have DAUq growth... There's no guidance on DAUq or ARPU for 2026 so we need to create our own... Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 '26 US 52.9 M $11.11 Intl 69.4 M $2.38 Q2 '26 US 53.2 M $11.45 Intl 69.9 M $2.45 Q3 '26 US 53.6 M $11.79 Intl 70.4 M $2.52 Q4 '26 US 54.0 M $12.14 Intl 70.9 M $2.60 For 2026, RDDT will have a worldwide daily active community 1/5 that of Meta's, with revenue equalling... Q region rev region rev total Rev Q1 '26 US $587.72 M intl $165.17 M $752.89 M Q2 '26 US $609.14 M intl $171.26 M $780.40 M Q3 '26 US $631.94 M intl $177.41 M $809.35 M Q4 '26 US $655.56 M intl $184.34 M $839.9 M Earlier, I calculated $2.93 B for the full year. This compares to the $3.18 B here. A difference of $250 M. This tells us that RDDT is expected to have significantly slowing revenue. I'll be using the initial value going forward, as they take into consideration Q1's slowing revenue. EPS and price targets For software companies, the precedent is to maintain a steady shared count by issuing buybacks while issuing stock-based compensation. We're going to assume that this trend is maintained. Q other income tax shares EPS Q1 '25 $20.5 M $(1.7) M 206.0 M $0.13 Q2 '25 $21.2 M $(0.4) M 206.6 M $0.43 Q3 '25 $22.0 M $(2.1) M 206.1 M $0.79 Q4 '25 $23.0 M $3.2 M 206.1 M $1.22 Average increase in other income is 3.9%, and average increase in taxes is 98.5% but sure to is sporadic nature we'll keep it at the Q4 2025 value. And for 2026... Q other income tax EPS TTM x 30 PE x 45 PE Q1 '26 $23.9 M $3.2 M $0.93 $100.96 $151.44 Q2 '26 $24.8 M $3.2 M $1.40 $129.98 $194.98 Q3 '26 $25.8 M $3.2 M $1.66 $156.17 $234.25 Q4 '26 $26.8 M $3.2 M $1.97 $178.70. $268.04 With a 45 PE, in Q1 we should see a share price of $151.44. With the current 60 PE, a price target of 200 is probable on a strong beat. That being said, I limited RDDT's DAUq and ARPU growth to half of Meta's, and kept the expense growth rates at 8% (despite the average pointing to it staying flat). Disclaimer: 1600 RDDT shares submitted by /u/run_midnight [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
Trade what you know. Long Reddit forever
2026-04-29T21:02:41+00:00
Peter Lynch said to buy what you know, and like you, there's nothing I do more then waste my life on this app. Meta is worth 1.7T, Reddit is worth 28B. Make it make sense. Reddit's earnings are tomorrow and it's clear to me they're going to continue to crush it. The fact that they're trading near where they were a year ago when they were unprofitable and with significantly less users is unconscionable. Earnings are tomorrow and has beaten EPS and Revenue estimates every time. The only reason they are down lately is because of misunderstood stock based compensation, nonsense about LLMs lowering search volume, and some third rate sites showing pageviews are down. Literally last quarter they beat earnings by a third, revenue is up 70% year over year, yet people are still fading. The AI battles are still ongoing and Reddit, “the most human place on the internet" is going to be robbing all the frontier labs by selling the only datastream that isn't polluted with a billion chatbots. It is really not unreasonable to expect this to go back to $300 and then higher. There is no other place on the internet like Reddit. Also, spez is back to posting regularly, bullish to have a CEO actually paying attention and in the trenches with us. Hedging with EPS miss shares on polymarket in case the trend breaks, they're pretty cheap so don't need too many, but the market is thin Positions: $29K in long RDDT shares (bought at $155 in the recent run up, so slightly down) $5500 in $200 calls for October 1522 shares of EPS miss on Polymarket submitted by /u/Only_Addition_9379 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.64
All in RDDT, earnings tomorrow
2026-04-29T18:35:01+00:00
submitted by /u/No_Masterpiece_1323 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.92
RDDT: 5 aufeinanderfolgende Quartale mit >100 % Gewinnwachstum stehen bevor
2026-04-28T23:54:08+00:00
100 % Gewinnwachstum stehen bevor" title="RDDT: 5 aufeinanderfolgende Quartale mit >100 % Gewinnwachstum stehen bevor" /> RDDT ist derzeit unterbewertet (sorry, der Beitrag ist auf Englisch). Es gibt (oft mehrere) große Subreddits für nahezu jedes Tier, jedes Sportteam, Hobby, Interesse, jedes Land, jede Stadt, jeden Beruf und alles andere. 96 % der Weltbevölkerung leben außerhalb der USA. Die internationalen Nutzer sind im letzten Quartal um 28 % gewachsen und übertreffen bereits die US-Nutzer–sie werden das Wachstum in den nächsten 2 Jahrzehnten antreiben. Institutionen werden von älteren Menschen geführt, die diese Entwicklung nicht aus erster Hand erlebt haben–wir sind früh dran. submitted by /u/tomato232 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Reddit Meme-Stock
2026-04-28T14:44:10+00:00
Hier kann man nun echt nicht mehr von Gewinnmitnahmen reden, es gab schlicht nichts zu holen. Woher der Drop? Wegen dem OpenAI Post und jetzt denken alle, die Reddit-Daten sind zu wenig wert oder was? submitted by /u/FloxyToxy [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
$RDDT get in before earnings
2026-04-27T15:31:47+00:00
Bull Case: Q4 25 - $725M revenue (+70% YoY). 45% adjusted EBITDA margin. $267M operating cash flow. $2.5B in the bank. Authorized a $1B buyback the same day. Add revenue growth + EBITDA margin and you get 115%. The benchmark for a healthy SaaS company is 40%. NVDA is around 90% right now. Meta is around 60%. Gross margin is 91.9%. Reddit pays nothing for content, mods work for free, and the only real costs are servers and trust & safety. EBITDA margin went from 4% to 45% in 24 months. On top of the ad business there's the AI licensing line. Google pays them $60M/yr and OpenAI pays $70M/yr to train models on Reddit data, ~10% of total revenue. Anthropic tried to scrape it without paying and got sued. Reddit is renegotiating these deals to dynamic pricing (pay per citation in AI answers) which could reprice the line meaningfully. Bear Case: US DAU grew 9% YoY in Q4. A year ago it grew 32%. The fear is Google's AI Overviews answer queries directly and 68% of Reddit's traffic comes from Google search, so the funnel dies. Stock got nuked on this thesis in early 2026. I think it's overdone. ARPU is doing the work, not user count. Global ARPU went $2.94 to $5.98 in 24 months. US ARPU is $10.79, international $2.31. Even if US user count flatlines for a year there's years of monetization runway internationally. Valuation: Trailing P/E is 59 - ignore it, the IPO comp charges are still flowing through GAAP. Forward P/E is 38. EV/Adj EBITDA is 32x. Meta trades at 22x EV/EBITDA growing 17%. Reddit at 32x growing 70%. On a growth-adjusted basis Reddit is cheaper. Napkin: $4B revenue in 2027 at 50% margin = $2B EBITDA. At Meta's multiple that's a $44B EV. Today they're at $27B. ~60% if it works. My position: I am a long term buy and hold. Didn't sell when it broke $250. Hope this post ages well after Thurs! https://preview.redd.it/hmiyhwxd6rxg1.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b95ff4462fecd354cf03770c4749f6545f5e798 https://preview.redd.it/wqbe1efe6rxg1.png?width=1099&format=png&auto=webp&s=eec413ce6fbd501124c608f73c2e905a0cd772f0 https://preview.redd.it/dg0814oe6rxg1.png?width=1140&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b37ad27b74495711583a8a57695f302bde0dfdb submitted by /u/MrActionJack [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.64
81.500-Aktien-Investition in RDDT—unterbewertet, schuldenfrei, wachstumsstark 🚀🚀🚀
2026-04-27T15:20:40+00:00
submitted by /u/tomato232 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Reddit Top Stocks Last Week: Intel is suddenly the most-discussed stock on Reddit
2026-04-27T13:12:01+00:00
I’ve been tracking the most popular stocks on Reddit for years, and Intel taking the top spot last week is honestly one of the more craziest things I’ve seen. A year ago, INTC felt almost dead from a retail investor perspective. Now it’s suddenly one of the most heavily discussed stocks on Reddit. Source: https://altindex.com/news/top-reddit-stocks-last-week-intc-gme-and-nvda-apr submitted by /u/GoodFortune67 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
RDDT Earnings DD, 2030 Valuation
2026-04-26T16:29:42+00:00
I started writing this post with a simple question, can RDDT hit a $1 T market cap by 2030? Yesterday, I ended up posting a copy of this with incorrect data. I had to repost to correct the problem, so I apologize. This post will examine RDDT's revenue growth rate, expense growth rate, EBITDA, and give a 2026 estimate with this data. We will then take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to the initial 2026 estimates and to other companies growth so we can then build a simple profile for 2027-2030. Revenue growth For 2026, let's see what RDDT has to say about their own growth. In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%. Let's do some math to see how much their revenues could increase per quarter if things average the same. Below are the 2025 values... Q revenue difference Q2 2025 $500 M 78% beat on Q2 '24 Q3 2025 $585 M 68% beat on Q3 '24 Q4 2025 $726 M 70% beat on Q4 '24 Q1 2026 $600 M 53% beat on Q1 '25 As we can see, revenues are increasing quarter to quarter, with the slowest quarter being every first quarter, and the average increase being 20.1%. Extrapolate this to 2026 and we get... Q revenue Q2 2026 $721 M Q3 2026 $865 M Q4 2026 $1039 M For the full year, if they keep their 20% revenue growth rate per quarter, they'll recieve $3.26 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 47%! This is a huge difference, but in line with their past beats, and I'll go into more detail about why revenue has room to run later in the article. Expenses next The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses. Q total expenses difference Q1 2025 $366 M - Q2 2025 $411 M 41% up on Q2 '24 Q3 2025 $422 M 19% up on Q3 '24 Q4 2025 $474 M 33% up on Q4 '24 Q1 2026 $385 M 5% up on Q1 '25 As we can see, except for the forecasted expenses in Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference of these numbers gives us an expense increase average of 0.5% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, the first quarter of '26's 23% decrease, we get an average expense increase of 8% per quarter. There we go, we got something to work with! Let's extrapolate this 8% increase in expenses to the full year of 2026 from Q1. Q expenses Q2 2026 $416 M Q3 2026 $449 M Q4 2026 $485 M This gives us full year expenses of $1735 M. Compared to the $1760 M in 2025, this is a 1.5% decrease or roughly flat... Next is the EBITDA (Note: RDDT doesn't pay taxes, they have received rebates every year since becoming public so I'll be omitting taxes from this article for the sake of my sanity.) Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint. Taking the numbers we have above and plugging them in gives us a forecast of ... Q EBITDA Q1 2026 $215 M Q2 2026 $305 M Q3 2026 $416 M Q4 2026 $554 M This gives us a full year outlook of $1490 M, compared to the $845 M in 2025 and an increase of 76%! That's with a higher than expected expense rate. So, now we got the numbers for 2026. For full year 2026, we estimate 47% revenue growth, expense growth of 8%, and EBITDA growth of 76% if things stay consistent. (Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiplying the total DAUq by the ARPU values, you get the exact revenue for the year... TLDR, ARPU encompasses AI training data and other revenues.) Current user growth rates and revenue per user We'll start by giving an estimate for 2026. RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for U.S. and "international." So, what are the numbers for 2025... Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 US 50.1 M 6.27 Int 58.0 M 1.34 Q2 US 50.3 M 7.87 Int 60.1 M 1.73 Q3 US 51.6 M 9.04 Int 64.4 M 1.84 Q4 US 52.5 M 10.79 Int 68.9 M 2.31 In 2025 the DAUq for US steadily increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 19.9% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%. This makes sense. But let's cap the ARPU at a value that matches Meta's. 20% might not be sustainable. Other companies user growth rates and ARPU (Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a direct competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value... That's not including the Chinese version of TikTok, only international.) Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta . Their DAU was 3.58 B at the end of 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4% per quarter since the beginning of 2024. Their ARPU is significantly larger at $16.96 at the end of 2025, and their ARPU growth rate is 6.2% per quarter. I'm going to cap RDDT's ARPU growth rate at 3%, or roughly inflation, and their DAUq growth rate at their current levels... (Honestly, I'm doing this because I ran the numbers with higher ARPU growth rates and it blows RDDT off the charts for net income. I want them to get there, I just need to keep things conservative.) Future DAUq and ARPU Okay, RDDT's ARPU has room to run and they have decent DAUq growth... So now we need to get back to the numbers. There's no guidance on DAUq or ARPU for 2026 so we need to create our own from the our data above... Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 US 53.3 M 11.11 Int 72.4 M 2.38 Q2 US 54.2 M 11.45 Int 76.0 M 2.45 Q3 US 55.0 M 11.79 Int 79.8 M 2.52 Q4 US 55.9 M 12.14 Int 83.8 M 2.60 For 2026, RDDT will have a worldwide daily active community 1/4 that of Meta's and $3317 M in revenue. Subtract the expenses of $1735 M, from above, and we get a net income of $1582 M. This is close to our EBITDA expectations of $1490 M which were based on forward guidance. 2027-2030 For 2027-2030 we're going to keep things consistent for this thought experiment. A 1.57% US DAUq growth, a 5% international DAUq growth, ARPU growth of 3%, and expenses growth at 8%. Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 US 56.8 M 12.50 Int 88.0 M 2.68 Q2 US 57.7 M 12.89 Int 92.4 M 2.76 Q3 US 58.6 M 13.27 Int 97.0 M 2.84 Q4 US 59.5 M 13.66 Int 101.9 M 2.93 This gives us an ad revenue of $4109 M, and net income of $2235 M. 2028 Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 US 60.4 M 14.07 Int 107.0 M 3.02 Q2 US 61.4 M 14.49 Int 112.4 M 3.11 Q3 US 62.3 M 14.93 Int 118.0 M 3.20 Q4 US 63.3 M 15.37 Int 123.8 M 3.30 Again, this gives us a revenue of $5101 M, and net income of $3078 M. 2029 Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 US 64.3 M 15.83 Int 130.0 M 3.40 Q2 US 65.3 M 16.31 Int 136.5 M 3.50 Q3 US 66.3 M 16.80 Int 143.3 M 3.61 Q4 US 67.4 M 17.30 Int 150.5 M 3.71 Revenue is $6358 M, and net income is $4173 M. And finally, 2030... Q region DAUq ARPU region DAUq ARPU Q1 US 68.4 M 17.82 Int 158.0 M 3.82 Q2 US 69.5 M 18.35 Int 165.9 M 3.94 Q3 US 70.6 M 18.90 Int 174.2 M 4.05 Q4 US 71.7 M 19.47 Int 182.9 M 4.18 This gives us a revenue of $7952 M, and net income of $5591 M by the end of 2030. With a P/E multiple of 30, that's a market cap of $167.7 B or 567% their current market cap... They'd need a PE of 180 to reach the trillion dollar mark. That being said, I limited their DAUq growth rate and severely limited ARPU growth compared to Meta, and kept the expense growth rates at 8% despite the average pointing to it staying flat. RDDT does have potential to beat this estimate, but they'll need to step up their game. Disclosure: 1500 shares submitted by /u/run_midnight [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Reddit earnings DD and fair value estimate
2026-04-26T09:23:13+00:00
Reddit reported 254% (3.5x) and 445% (5.5x) earnings growth in its past 2 reports. I project 498% (6x) earnings growth in the upcoming report. My estimates are conservative: daily active user (DAU) growth in the high teens and revenue growth slowing to 50% over the next year. RDDT's price could reach $420 by next April without being overvalued (P/E 56 with a forward 12-month earnings growth of 62%). Full investment thesis is in my March 29 post. submitted by /u/tomato232 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
RDDT earnings DD, 2030 valuation
2026-04-26T02:39:08+00:00
I started writing this post with a simple question, can RDDT hit a $1 T market cap by 2030? Yesterday, I ended up posting a copy of this with incorrect data and have to repost. I apologize for the double posting. This post will examine RDDT's revenue growth rate, expense growth rate, EBITDA, and give a 2026 estimate with this data. We will then take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to the initial 2026 estimates and to other companies growth so we can then build a simple profile for 2027-2030. **Revenue growth** For 2026, let's see [what RDDT has to say]( https://investor.redditinc.com/news-events/news-releases/news-details/2026/Reddit-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-Announces-1-Billion-Share-Repurchase-Program/default.aspx ) about their own growth. >In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%. Let's do some math to see how much their revenues could increase per quarter if things average the same. Below are the 2025 values... | Q | revenue | difference | | :-: | :-: | :-: | | Q2 2025 | $500 M | 78% beat on Q2 '24 | | Q3 2025 | $585 M | 68% beat on Q3 '24 | | Q4 2025 | $726 M | 70% beat on Q4 '24 | |Q1 2026 | $600 M | 53% beat on Q1 '25 | As we can see, revenues are increasing quarter to quarter, with the slowest quarter being every first quarter, and the average increase being 20.1%. Extrapolate this to 2026 and we get... | Q | revenue | | :-: | :-: | | Q2 2026 | $721 M | | Q3 2026 | $865 M | | Q4 2026 | $1039 M | For the full year, if they keep their 20% revenue growth rate per quarter, they'll recieve $3.26 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 47%! This is a huge difference, but in line with their past beats, and I'll go into more detail about why ARPU has room to run later in the article. **Expenses next** >The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses. | Q | total expenses | difference | | :-: | :-: | :-: | | Q1 2025 | $366 M | - | | Q2 2025 | $411 M | 41% up on Q2 '24 | | Q3 2025 | $422 M | 19% up on Q3 '24 | | Q4 2025 | $474 M | 33% up on Q4 '24 | | Q1 2026 | $385 M | 5% up on Q1 '25 | As we can see, except for Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference of these numbers gives us expense increase average of 0.5% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, last quarter's 23% decrease in expenses, we get an average expense increase of 8% per quarter. There we go, we got something to work with! Let's extrapolate this 8% increase in expenses to the full year 2026 from Q1 2026. | Q | expenses | | :-: | :-: | | Q2 2026 | $416 M | | Q3 2026 | $449 M | | Q4 2026 | $485 M | This gives us a full year expenses of $1735 M. Compared to the $1760 M in 2025, this is a 1.5% decrease or roughly flat... as I stated in my 2030 valuation post. **Next is the EBITDA** *(Note: RDDT doesn't pay taxes, they have received rebates every year since becoming public so I'll be omitting taxes from this article for the sake of sanity.)* >Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint. Taking the numbers we have above and plugging them into a simple EBITDA formula gives us... | Q | EBITDA | | :-: | :-: | | Q1 2026 | $215 M | | Q2 2026 | $305 M | | Q3 2026 | $416 M | | Q4 2026 | $554 M | This gives us a full year outlook of $1490 M, compared to the $845 M in 2025 and an increase of 76%! That's with a higher than expected expense rate. So, now we got the numbers for 2026. For full year 2026, we estimate 47% revenue growth, expense growth of 8%, and EBITDA growth of 76% if things stay consistent. *(Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiply the total DAUq by the ARPU values you get the exact revenue for the year... They don't distinguish revenue sources, only noting a single ARPU value for the geographical region that encompasses all revenue for that region. ARPU encompasses AI training data revenue...)* **Current user growth rates and revenue per user** We'll start by giving an estimate for 2026. RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for U.S. and "international." So, what are the numbers for 2025... | Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU | | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | | Q1 | US | 50.1 M | 6.27 | Int | 58.0 M | 1.34 | | Q2 | US | 50.3 M | 7.87 | Int | 60.1 M | 1.73 | | Q3 | US | 51.6 M | 9.04 | Int | 64.4 M | 1.84 | | Q4 | US |52.5 M | 10.79 | Int | 68.9 M | 2.31 | In 2025 the DAUq for US increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 19.9% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%. This makes sense. But let's cap the ARPU at a value that matches Meta's. 20% might not be sustainable. **Other companies user growth rates and ARPU** *(Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value... That's not including the Chinese version of TikTok, only international.)* Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta, and their [ARPU]( https://quartr.com/insights/visuals/meta-s-facebook-arpu-growth ) is massive in comparison to RDDT at $227 for the US at the end of 2025, and their [DAUq]( https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/meta/metrics/revenue-by-geography/ ) growth is higher at roughly 5% for the US. Internationally, Meta has DAUq growth of 6.4% and ARPU of between $16 and $76, depending on the region. I'm going to cap RDDT's ARPU growth rate at 3%, or roughly inflation, and their DAUq growth rate at their current levels... (Honestly, I'm doing this because I ran the numbers with higher ARPU growth rates and it blows RDDT off the charts for net income.) **Future DAUq and ARPU** Okay, RDDT ads have room to run and they have decent user growth... So now we need to get back to the numbers. There's no guidance on DAUq for 2026 so we need to create our own from the our data above... | Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU | | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | | Q1 | US | 53.3 M | 11.11 | Int | 72.4 M | 2.38 | | Q2 | US | 54.2 M | 11.45 | Int | 76.0 M | 2.45 | | Q3 | US | 55.0 M | 11.79 | Int | 79.8 M | 2.52 | | Q4 | US | 55.9 M | 12.14 | Int | 83.8 M | 2.60 | For 2026, RDDT will have a worldwide DAUq community 1/4 that of Meta's and $3317 M in revenue. Subtract the expenses of $1735 M, from above, and we get a net income of $1582 M. If you look at our revenue numbers above, this is very close to our EBITDA expectations of $1490 M which were based on forward guidance. **2027-2030** For 2027-2030 we're going to keep things consistent for this thought experiment. A 1.57% US DAUq, a 5% international DAUq, ARPU growth of 3%, and expenses at +8%. | Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU | | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | | Q1 | US | 56.8 M | 12.50 | Int | 88.0 M | 2.68 | | Q2 | US | 57.7 M | 12.89 | Int | 92.4 M | 2.76 | | Q3 | US | 58.6 M | 13.27 | Int | 97.0 M | 2.84 | | Q4 | US | 59.5 M | 13.66 | Int | 101.9 M | 2.93 | This gives us an ad revenue of $4109 M, and net income of $2235 M. 2028 | Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU | | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | | Q1 US | 60.4 M | 14.07 | Int | 107.0 M | 3.02 | | Q2 US | 61.4 M | 14.49 | Int | 112.4 M | 3.11 | | Q3 US | 62.3 M | 14.93 | Int | 118.0 M | 3.20 | | Q4 US | 63.3 M | 15.37 | Int | 123.8 M | 3.30 | Again, this gives us a revenue of $5101 M, and net income of $3078 M. 2029 | Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU | | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | | Q1 | US | 64.3 M | 15.83 | Int | 130.0 M | 3.40 | | Q2 | US | 65.3 M | 16.31 | Int | 136.5 M | 3.50 | | Q3 | US | 66.3 M | 16.80 | Int | 143.3 M | 3.61 | | Q4 | US | 67.4 M | 17.30 | Int | 150.5 M | 3.71 | Revenue is $6358 M, and net income is $4173 M. And finally, 2030... | Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU | | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | | Q1 | US | 68.4 M | 17.82 | Int | 158.0 M | 3.82 | | Q2 | US | 69.5 M | 18.35 | Int | 165.9 M | 3.94 | | Q3 | US | 70.6 M | 18.90 | Int | 174.2 M | 4.05 | | Q4 | US | 71.7 M | 19.47 | Int | 182.9 M | 4.18 | This gives us a revenue of $7952 M, and net income of $5591 M by the end of 2030. **With a P/E multiple of 30, that's a market cap of $167.7 B or 567% their current market cap.** They'd need a PE of 180 to reach the trillion dollar mark. That being said, I severely limited their growth rate and revenue growth rate and kept the expense growth rates at 8% despite the average significantly bdecreasing in the last quarter. RDDT does have potential to beat this estimate, but they'll need to step up their game. Disclosure: 1500 shares submitted by /u/run_midnight [link] [comments]